Adding Mega Value On Playoff Prop Betting To NBA Picks

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, May 5, 2016 5:26 PM GMT

It was a tough night for us on Wednesday, however, we are still rolling on our prop picks. 8-3-1 over the last 12 & we're back with more tonight from bet365.

Joe Johnson O/U 20.5 points, rebounds and assists
Joe Johnson has been a season-saving signing for the Heat. After Chris Bosh went down they needed another wing scorer to accommodate their smaller and faster lineup, and Johnson has given them just that. His age and mileage have made him and up and down asset to say the least, but in Miami’s Game 1 against the Raptors, he was definitely up. Johnson took a whopping 19 shots and had 16 points and seven rebounds in 42 minutes of action.

This could have been because Luol Deng was being shadowed by DeMarre Carroll a lot in Game 1, and if that happens again, the Heat are going to need Johnson to shoot the ball more in order to make up for the lack of offense. Without Bosh, Dwyane Wade has had to step up a lot, and so has Goran Dragic and Deng. However, Johnson too has to take on a bigger load, and is he, Dragic and Deng are being aggressive on offense, the Heat are tough to beat.

In games where Johnson has scored at least 14 points since coming over from the Nets, the Heat are 9-3 SU. Needless to say, when they are getting scoring from their role players, they are tough to beat. That being said, I think Johnson is going to be in line for anther heavy Usage Rate on offense in game 2, and if he is rebounding and passing like he is capable of, his over is going to cash an NBA pick for us here tonight.

Free NBA Pick: OVER 20.5 (-120)
Best Line Offered: at Bet365

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Goran Dragic O/U 25.5 points, rebounds and assists
Speaking of players who need to be more aggressive, Goran Dragic has done just that over Miami’s last two playoff games. He has taken a total of 37 shots in his last two playoff games, and it has led to him averaging 25.5 points per game alone. With Dwyane Wade reportedly banged up, the Heat are in need of more scoring, and Dragic is the man to give it to them.

However, apparently those who set NBA Odds have not taken notice of this, and his O/U for points, rebounds and assists here in Game 2 is only 25 ½. This is a huge mistake that needs to be exploited. Not only is Dragic scoring more, he has rebounded the ball well throughout the playoffs. He has at least six rebounds per game in his last six playoff games, and while he doesn’t initiate the offense as much with the ball in Wade’s hands a lot, he has been knocking down shots, which is more important for this prop.

If he scores another 20 points tonight, the over is a lock for this prop. Dragic has had some down games in the playoffs, but in games where he shoots the ball at least 15 times, the Heat are 3-1 SU in these playoffs.

Free NBA Pick: OVER 25.5 (-120)
Best Line Offered: at Bet365