We hit one of three last night, but our best prop pick on Al Farouq Aminu hit easily, so at least that was a consolation prize, but I plan to work our way back above .500 with my three best NBA picks.
Will Russell Westbrook record a triple double?
Russell Westbrook is a very emotional player. Watching him play for five minutes and you fan figure that out. What sets him off is no different than what set off great like Michael Jordan; talking about him negatively. The most recent bout of this is dance-gate.
Westbrook’s pre-game dance routine with Cameron Payne has been national news because of the irrelevant Charlie Villanueva making comments about it. Newsflash Charlie, Westbrook feeds off this stuff.
Not only that, but the Mavs stole a win in Oklahoma City in Game 2, and I’m sure this did not make the Thunder or Westbrook very happy. That being said, Westbrook’s odds to record a triple double in this game as way to generous for a guy who had one every four games during the regular season.
At +175, I expect Westbrook to go bonkers in this game. As long as Kevin Durant can knock down some shots to get him the assists, I can guarantee Westbrook will have enough points and rebounds to get at the very least a double-double. The NBA odds for that is -450, so as you can see, as long as OKC can make some shots tonight, Westbrook’s assists total should also be in double figures.
The Pick: Yes (+175) at Bovada
Jonas Valanciunas O/U 26.5 Points and rebounds
The Pacers have had no answers for Jonas Valanciunas in this series, and even as the series shifts back to Indiana, I doubt that changes much.
The Pacers were one of the worst interior defenses and rebounding teams this season, and even though Ian Mahinmi is a solid defender, he is obviously not himself right now. Valanciunas has taken advantage of that, and with the scoring struggles of the Raptors’ guards, their big man has picked up the slack.
He has 20 points and 10 rebounds at halftime of Game 2, and the only thing that has slowed him down over the last two games has been foul trouble. As long as he can avoid picking up dumb and early fouls,
I have no reason to believe that he can’t get above 26 points and rebounds in Game 3. The Pacers were 17th in Rebounding Percentage this season and 20th in Offensive Rebounding rate, so Big Val should have at least 10-12 boards alone in this one.
The Pick: 'Over' 26.5 (-115)
DeMar DeRozan O/U 22.5 Points
I’m going back to the well for my best prop NBA pick of the night, and it’s very simple. DeMar DeRozan can’t score on Paul George, and it’s not going to change any o the road here tonight.
George has owned DeRozan all throughout their career games against one another, and these playoffs are putting an exclamation point on that. George is holding DeRozan to 12 points per game, and only 27 percent from the floor.
George has always been an elite defender, and yet the sportsbooks still have DeRozan’s point total above 22 for tonight’s game. DeRozan averaged 2.5 fewer points on the road this season than he did at home, and he shot the ball only 43.4 percent on the road this season too. That isn’t going to change in Bankers Life Fieldhouse tonight, so add the under to your picks.
The Pick: 'Under' 22.5 (-125)