Add 'Over' for Mavericks vs. Warriors to NBA Picks

Swinging Johnson

Tuesday, March 11, 2014 1:23 PM GMT

Tuesday, Mar. 11, 2014 1:23 PM GMT

Western Conference foes collide as both Dallas and Golden State jockey for playoff seedings but when considering the NBA odds, which team has the best chance of cashing a ticket tonight?

Compare the top NBA Championship betting lines!

Dallas Mavericks (38-26 SU, 36-28 ATS)

The Mavs had reeled off four straight victories until they hit a bump in the road with three consecutive losses to Chicago, San Antonio and Denver. However, Dallas returned to their home court and got back on the winning track against Portland and most recently Indiana where they not only won but covered the all-important number in NBA odds. The home cookin’ was exactly what Dallas needed but now they take to the highway where they are 17-16 straight up but a money-making 21-12 ATS in NBA odds.

While it is true the Mavericks have won and covered their last two, it should be noted that instead of closing out Portland after holding a 30-point lead on Friday night and nearly blowing a 17-point advantage to Indiana, Dallas allowed their opponents back in only to shut the door late. Dirk Nowitzki was ice cold in Sunday’s win over the Eastern Conference leading Pacers where he shot a dismal 3-of-14 from the field but key contributions from Monta Ellis and Devin Harris paved the way to victory.

Golden State Warriors (40-24 SU, 32-20-2 ATS)

The Warriors are on a four-game winning streak and have covered the NBA odds in all but their last game against the Phoenix Suns where they were installed as 9 ½ point home favorites but were outscored 29-19 in the fourth quarter to blow what looked like a relatively easy cover to win by six, 113-107. The Warriors are a season best 16 games over .500, a red hot 9-2 straight up since the All-Star break and have been keeping their backers happy by going 8-3 ATS in NBA odds.

Golden State’s record at home is deceptive, particularly if you’re inclined to back them with your cold, hard cash. While they are 20-10 at the Oracle Arena, punters who choose to blindly back a good team at home have failed to get any return on their investment. The Warriors are a disappointing 13-15-2 against the number when playing at in front of the home crowd. Clearly they are routinely being harnessed with a number too big to cover and we should keep that in mind as they tip off against a decent Mavericks team tonight. Another factor is the health of All-Star point guard Stephen Curry, who has been nursing a strained quad muscle that has seen him scoring 7 ½ points below his season average and shooting a chilly 5-of-18 from three point land during the team’s four game winning streak which coincides with the length of his injury.

Free NBA Pick:

The teams have split the season series with Dallas taking the opening game at home back in November by a 103-99 margin while Golden State returned the favor with a narrow 95-93 victory on their home court almost three weeks later. But much has happened since those games in the early part of the season and we must turn our attention to the here and now.

Here’s the deal. The oddsmakers have tagged this at just about the same number I had set in my mind before taking a peek at SBR odds. The Warriors are 5 ½ point favorites which is only half a point more than I had guesstimated. So this side is a pass for me.

However, the total here looks appetizing. The Warriors are scoring in bunches while the Mavericks have been allowing teams to light up the scoreboard to the tune of almost 110 points per game over their last five road games. Golden State has averaged 108.7 PPG over their last six at the Oracle. The only fly in the ointment might be Stephen Curry’s playing time. He is the Warriors scoring leader and his absence may hinder what looks like a solid play on the Over in this one.

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