Add the Hotter Team in Bucks/Pelicans Game to Your Tuesday's NBA Picks

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, March 17, 2015 1:30 PM UTC

Tuesday, Mar. 17, 2015 1:30 PM UTC

The Pelicans have dominated this series of late ATS, but then again, so have the Underdogs, so what to do here on Tonight in New Orleans when the Pelicans host the Bucks? 

Odds Overview
Milwaukee Bucks at New Orleans Pelicans, Tuesday (NBA TV, NBA TV Canada, Fox Sports Wisconsin, DTV: 216, 669 (US); 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT): Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans (36-30, 99.9 PF-99.3 PA) welcome the Milwaukee Bucks (34-32, 97.6 PF-96.8 PA) to The Big Easy in this inter-conference matchup at the Smoothie King Center on Tuesday night. NBA betting odds have made the host Pelicans 7-point (-105) favorites here, with the Total (Points) set at 189½ (Pinnacle). The Money Line (Winner) odds see the Pelicans priced as -303 favorites with the visiting Bucks priced as +267 underdogs on the takeback (Pinnacle). The First Half odds see New Orleans as 4-point favorites (William Hill),


Previous Meetings This Season, Recent Series History
This will be the second and final meeting between these two teams, with the Pelicans (38-20 ATS) beating and covering the favorite Bucks (38-20 ATS) on March 9 in Milwaukee, 114-103 as 1½-point underdogs with the game going flying over the 186½ Total by over 31 points. New Orleans (36-30 Over) is now a dominating 7-1 ATS L8 against the Bucks with that win and cover a little more than a week ago, but the Underdog in this series is also 6-1 ATS L7, so with the host Pelicans (38-28 Under) being the chalk here, the recent relevant trends in this series only half support taking New Orleans—an organized 16th in Points Per Game, 15th in rebounds, 14th in Assists and 13th Points Allowed—here at Home on Tuesday at the Smoothie King Center. And for those of you wondering what the fuddazzle a Smoothie King is, the Good Folks at Wikipedia have informed me that Smoothie King “is a food retailer that caters to blended fruit-based drinks. First opening in 1973 as a stand-alone vitamin shop in Kenner, Louisiana, Smoothie King now encompasses over 600 locations.” So, from a little vitamin shop to a stadium sponsorship in 42 years, likely fueled by a demand for healthy fruit concoctions in a city known for its rum consumption and Mardi Gras. The lesson? Profitability is always a possibility with Beverage Sales. Heineken, PepsiCo, Coca-Cola, Heineken, Anheuser-Busch and Starbucks know of this, Bubba Gump.

Last Game Out, Significant Injuries
On Saturday night in Memphis, the Bucks were beaten, and failed to cover as 6½-point favorites, 96-83 after losing, but covering, two nights earlier in Indianapolis as 7-point underdogs against the Pacers in a 109-103 OT loss. So, this game will be the Bucks (#25 Rebounding, 41.5 rpg) third Away tilt in the last 6 days and fatigue and travel could be a real issue. Milwaukee (100/1 to win NBA Championship, Opened 300/1; Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) was last at Home on Wednesday, March 11, while the Pelicans (100/1; Opened 50/1) have been Home here in New Orleans for a week and should be rested, although Sunday’s 118-111 2 OT loss at the Smoothie King Center to the Nuggets had to take something out on the Pelicans and Davis—who had a sick 36 Points, 14 Rebounds, 7 Assists and 9 Blocks—although New Orleans is still 7-3 L10 heading on off that loss while Milwaukee is 3-7 over its L10.

Health-wise, Milwaukee (50/1 to win Eastern Conference; Opened 135/1) has some big names on its roster who won’t be playing here in No. 2 overall 2014 NBA Draft pick and PF Jabari Parker (Duke; knee ligaments) and backup PG Kendall Marshall (torn ACL) have both been on the shelf for Head Coach Jason Kidd while the team and troubled C Larry Sanders recently decided to part ways. G Michael Carter Williams (ankle) is listed as Probable. For New Orleans (50/1 to win Western Conference; Opened 25/1), All Is Somewhat Quiet On The Injury Front for the Pelicans—with F Ryan Anderson (knee) and G Jrue Holiday (leg) both Out Indefinitely—with star Davis surrounded by PG Tyreke Evans, SG Eric Gordon, SF Quincy Pondexter and C Omer Asik in the Hornets starting lineup in their last game vs. Denver on Sunday.

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Best Approach and Trends
Almost all the little things say take the Pelicans here: New Orleans 7-1 ATS L8 against Milwaukee; the Homecourt advantage; the reality the Pelicans already beat the Bucks 8 days ago in Milwaukee; New Orleans 7-3 L10 SU run against Milwaukee’s polar opposite 3-7 L10 SU mark; Parker, Marshall and Sanders not being able to help because of two injuries and one roster flight; the Pelicans probably being a bit mad from the 2 OT Home loss in their last outing; the Bucks (15-20 Away) wear and tear from playing this third-straight Road game; and, the reality that New Orleans (22-12 Home) will have the best player in the game, the city, the state and the South in Anthony Davis (24.8 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 2.81 bpg) on their side.

And also worth noting, New Orleans starts the day in 9th place in the Western Conference, 1 game behind the 8th-place Oklahoma City Thunder (37-29), currently out of the NBA Playoffs were the season to end today, while Milwaukee is in 6th place in the Eastern Conference, a comfortable 4½ games above the co-9th-place Miami Heat and Boston Celtics—both sitting at 29-36—so a loss is meaningless to them whereas a win at Home here by the Pelicans (20-14 ATS Home) almost expected, making even the Moneyline worth some consideration.

And with the Over easily hitting in the last game and around 200 points expected here on St. Patrick’s Day night—when the beer flows Shamrock Green and everyone’s Irish but missing Russian President Vladimir Putin and Pitbull—balancing a straight NBA pick on the Pelicans with a Total (Points) throw looks worthy in this contest in a league where winning or losing a bet often comes down to the most random and unlucky things at times. Almost always actually. Hey, my last Fortune Cookie actually read: Tread Lightly With Roundball And Women. And cookies seldom lie, although one of the Keebler Elves did once sell me a gold Buick with a bad muffler in 2007 and didn’t tell me about it. So, more of an indictment on Cookies than Elves, Monsieur. Carry on.


Predicted Final Score: Pelicans 108 Bucks 97

NBA Pick: Pelicans -7, Over 189½ at Pinnacle

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