A Bit of Magic on the NBA Odds in Philadelphia

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, November 5, 2014 5:31 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2014 5:31 PM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Wednesday.


It is not often that value can be found on the road favorite in a battle of 0-4 teams, but we feel that such is the case Wednesday night when the Orlando Magic (0-4, 0-2 away) pay a visit to the Philadelphia 76ers (0-4, 0-2 home) at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, PA at 7:05 ET in a game available on CSN - Philadelphia.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Orlando as a modest road favorite for this contest with the current line at -3 with odds of -105.

Someone Has to Win, Right?
These two teams were two of the three worst NBA picks in the league last season, as the 76ers finished with the league’s second worst mark at 19-63 and the Magic were third worst at 23-59. The only club preventing these teams from having the two worst records was the Milwaukee Bucks, who finished a dismal 15-67.

Still at least some hope could be found on Orlando’s roster both then and now, while the Sixers boast the reigning NBA Rookie of the Year in Michael Carter-Williams and basically nothing else. In fact, Philadelphia used the third pick of the NBA Draft this season on Joel Embiid, knowing full well he will not be available until late January at the earliest following foot surgery.

Gave Bulls a Nice Run
The Magic on the other hand do have some talent such as a walking double-double at center in Nikola Vucevic, an underrated shooter in Tobias Harris, a promising Evan Fournier who is averaging 15.8 points on a very good 48.9 percent shooting in the early going and some veteran pick-ups in Channing Frye, Ben Gordon and Luke Ridnour. And this group gave the Chicago Bulls all they can handle on the road last night.

Orlando came up short in the Windy City 98-90, but it was a good covering effort where the Magic were within three points in the fourth quarter before Chicago edged away late, as Vucevic had his typical 19 points and 13 rebounds, Harris led the way with 21 points and Fournier added 13. And that was while shooting just 43.2 percent from the floor, which was off of Orlando’s season average of 44.6 percent.

That offense should be able to pick things up a bit tonight vs. a Philadelphia defense that has allowed over 100 points in three of its four games so far while allowing an average of 103.5 points.

Sixers Expected to be the Worst
So little was expected from the 76ers this season that there was a prop available where there were the -175 “favorites” to finish with the worst record in the NBA after just missing that dubious distinction last year thanks to Milwaukee. And they may very well be on there way to proving that high favoritism to be correct.

We have already mentioned the defensive struggles the Sixers are having and the offense has not been any better producing a mere 90.2 points per game on 42.4 percent shooting. And Philadelphia has not even been competitive with all four losses being by double-digits. Yes they finally covered a spread vs. the Houston Rockets on Monday, but just barely falling 104-93 as +11½ underdogs with that 11-point margin being the teams “closest” game of the young season.

Head-to-Head Magic Dominance
The Magic were have been the worst road team in the NBA since the calendar flipped over to 2014, as up to the minute they are 1-28 straight up in their 29 games away from home since January 1st! However, that one win came here in Philadelphia 101-90 in February, and the Magic went 4-0 ATS overall vs. Philadelphia last season, continuing a head-to-head dominance that now has Orlando at 22-7 ATS in the last 29 meetings.

Look for that dominance to continue for at least one more game with Orlando being the team getting its first win in a battle of winless clubs at Philadelphia on Wednesday.

NBA Pick: Magic -3 (-105)

comment here