76ers vs. Nets NBA Picks: Poor Defenses to Keep Score 'Over' 196.5

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, December 10, 2015 6:54 PM UTC

Thursday, Dec. 10, 2015 6:54 PM UTC

You do not have to have marquee NBA matchups to find good profit potential for your NBA picks, and such is the case in point when the 1-21 76ers pay a visit to the 6-15 Nets in Brooklyn on Thursday.


While NBA matchups may not get any uglier than this from a standings viewpoint, there is good ‘over’ potential Thursday night in a matchup of two weak defenses when the lowly Philadelphia 76ers (1-21, 11-10-1 ATS) pay a visit to the Brooklyn Nets (6-15, 12-9 ATS) at the Barclays Centre in Brooklyn, NY at 7:35 ET in a game available on YES.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 196½ for this contest with the current NBA odds on the ‘over’ set at -109.

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Free NBA Pick: Over196½
Best Odds Offered By Pinnacle


Both Teams Over .500 ATS
Despite the standings of these two teams, both are actually over .500 ATS so far, which is an indication that the point spread is the great equalizer as usual. The 76ers own just one straight up win over the Los Angeles Lakers in 22 tries, and yet they are 11-10-1 ATS. Philadelphia had been on a 6-0 ATS tear prior to going 0-2-1 ATS in the last three games.

The 76ers are the only team keeping the fourth place Nets out of the Atlantic Division basement at 6-15, and yet Brooklyn stands at a nice 12-9 ATS. The Nets enter this contest on a 6-2 ATS run as NBA picks and they are 4-4 straight up in those contests after beginning the season at 2-11. Still, Brooklyn is not showing any improvement defensively and Philadelphia has been just as bad on that end, so this could be a relatively high scoring albeit sloppy affair.


Back to Being the 76ers Again
The 76ers are 24th in the NBA in points against at 103.1 points per game, 16th in field goal percentage allowed at 44.7 percent and 20th in three-point defense at 35.3 percent, but they showed nice improvement defensively for a while, which was the key to their 6-0 ATS run we mentioned previously. However, the current 0-2-1 ATS run has come just as Philadelphia has reverted back to its weak defensive form.

The Sixers are allowing 108.7 points per game on a distressingly generous 49.8 percent shooting over those three games and they come off of perhaps the most one-sided game in the NBA so far this season, a 51-point loss to the Spurs 119-68 on Monday where they allowed San Antonio to shoot 61.8 percent!

Most disturbingly was that the 76ers faced quite a few Spurs’ backups in that contest with Kawhi Leonard, Tim Duncan, and Manu Ginobili all missing the game for San Antonio. Now they must contend with a Brooklyn offense that is showing signs of a pulse.


Nets Coming Off of Win
The Nets are only 25th in the league in scoring with 96.2 points per game, but part of that has to do with usually playing at a slow pace as they are actually in the top half of the league in field goal percentage, ranking 12th at 44.6 percent. And Brooklyn showed what it is capable of Tuesday when drawn into a faster pace vs. a team that does not play much defense, as the Nets beat the Houston Rockets 110-105 for their sixth win of the year.

Well, that game could be a precursor of what to expect from the Brooklyn offense this evening, as the 76ers are another team that usually does not play much defense and prefers to play at a fast tempo, grading out at 99.6 possessions per game.

And then there is the Nets defense, which ranks 23rd in points against at 103.0 per game but has actually been worse than that due to the slow pace rating. And the defense is showing no improvement while allowing 108, 114 and 105 points in the last three games respectively.


Trending the ‘Over’
Finally, these defenses are so bad that both teams have some solid ‘over’ trends despite neither club having a great offense. The ‘over’ is 13-4 in the 76ers’ last 17 conference games and 6-1 in their last seven games following a double-digit home loss. The ‘over’ is also 5-0 in the Nets’ last five divisional games and 17-6 in their last 23 games following a straight up win.

Look for more of the same here with the two defenses making the two offenses seem competent, producing an ‘over’ when Philadelphia visits Brooklyn on Thursday.

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