76ers vs. Heat Game 5 NBA Picks: Don't Fade Miami Just Yet

James Harden looked his old self during Philadelphia’s Game 4 win over the Miami Heat. We’ll need to see a lot more of that for the 76ers to advance. Let's dive in with our 76ers-Heat Game 5 picks.

The Miami Heat have lost the last two games of this series because of their terrible shooting from beyond the arc. After making an NBA-high 37.9% of their regular-season triples, the Heat shot 23.3% in Game 3 and 20% in Game 4.

Head coach Erik Spoelstra’s decision not to play Duncan Robinson has been a factor in Miami's shooting. The three-point ace fell out of the starting rotation late in the season before playing under a minute in this series. With the Heat needing to jump-start their offense, expect more minutes for Robinson, and better shooting from the rest of the team.

Here are my 76ers-Heat picks and predictions for Tuesday’s NBA matchup (odds via FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

76ers vs. Heat Game Info

Date/Time: Tuesday, May 10 at 6:30 p.m. ETTV: TNT Location: FTX Arena, Miami, FL

76ers vs. Heat Odds Analysis

The Miami Heat opened as 3.5-point favorites over the 76ers for Game 4, and that’s hasn't changed at most books. That's down four points from the 7.5-point advantage they entered with for Games 1 and 2, both of which the 76ers played without Joel Embiid.

The total opened at 210 through most books, but it now sits at 209 or 209.5. That's up from the closing number of 208.5 for Game 4. The highest closing number we’ve seen this series was 210.5 for Game 3.

76ers vs. Heat Picks

Heat -3 (-110 via FanDuel) ????Over 209 (-110 via DraftKings) ???James Harden Over 4.5 Turnovers (-130 via DraftKings) ???

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76ers vs. Heat Predictions

Heat -3 (-110)

I banked on positive regression for Miami when I took them to win Game 4, and I won’t back down from that angle now. The Heat didn’t make the necessary adjustments to improve their 3-point shooting, but Spoelstra is too good of a head coach to let that go unresolved.

Bad luck and questionable personnel decisions have been holding the Heat back in this series, at least offensively. A banged-up Kyle Lowry played 27.5 minutes per game in Games 3 and 4, shot 21.2% from the field, and went 0-for-8 from beyond the arc. Gabe Vincent played 12.5 minutes per game, shot 12.5% from the field, and went 0-for-4 from distance. Tyler Herro, a 39.9% 3-point shooter in the regular season, shot 25% in Games 3 and 4.

Notably, Philadelphia's perimeter defense isn't holding Miami back. The 76ers contested only 55.3% of Miami’s 3-point looks in Games 3 and 4. That number sits at 56.1% for the full series. The Heat just need to make a few more of their open looks to close out the 76ers. They would’ve won Game 4 if Miami shot 28.5% from deep, and they were given the open looks. That number is still well below their regular-season average of 37.9%, too.

I’ll give credit where credit it's due, though. Philadelphia’s offense has looked rejuvenated with Joel Embiid on the floor. Tyrese Maxey exploded in Game 3, and James Harden did the same in Game 4. But the 76ers converted 48.5% of their 3-pointers in Games 3 and 4 despite shooting 36.6% in the regular season, so expect some regression in that department shortly.

Over 209 (-110)

I have been on a lot of Overs lately, but that’s only because the numbers have been so low. Although playoff basketball features better defensive play and more deliberate pacing, that doesn’t justify keeping totals this low when we know regression should push the total Over.

The Over is 2-2 in this series. These teams have combined for 205.5 points per game, which sits a nose below this number, but that’s partially a product of the absolute offensive meltdown we all witnessed in Game 3. The Heat scored only 79 points, their fewest in a playoff game since 2013.

Since Spoelstra is sure to give Robinson some minutes, the Heat should get a shot in the arm offensively. But Robinson’s presence could also help the 76ers score a few more points because of his relatively poor defensive play. He owns a -1.0 defensive RAPTOR rating during both his playoff and regular-season minutes.

Harden Over 4.5 Turnovers (-130)

It's hard to love this high number, but we’ve seen some sloppy ball-handling from Harden lately, which overshadowed his strong scoring performance in Game 4. Harden is averaging 5.3 turnovers per game this series, and he's gone Over this number three times.

Embiid’s absence in Games 1 and 2 isn't strongly connected to Harden's turnover issues. He turned the ball over five times in Game 1 and three times in Game 2. The veteran then coughed up seven more when Embiid returned for Game 3 and six in Game 4.

The Miami Heat forced the fourth-most turnovers per game during the regular season. They’ve kept pestering their opponents in the playoffs and rank second in the metric among teams that are still in the postseason.

With Harden entering Game 4 more confident than he has been in recent memory, I expect him to get the ball more often, and to turn it over plenty as a result.

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76ers-Heat picks made 5/10/2022 at 10:47 a.m. ET.