76ers vs. Heat Game 2 NBA Picks: Can Philly Cover Without Embiid?

Can the Philadelphia 76ers bounce back from a dreadful shooting performance in Game 1 to even the series with a win in the second affair vs. the Miami Heat? Here are our 76ers-Heat picks for Game 2.

Game 1 opened Monday with a highly competitive first half, as the 76ers took a 51-50 lead into halftime without Joel Embiid. Miami then outscored Philly 56-41 the rest of the way to secure the win and take a 1-0 series lead.

James Harden continued to struggle and finished the game with just 16 points and five assists while shooting 5 of 13 from the floor. Tyrese Maxey had a rough game of his own, and Philly got obliterated when DeAndre Jordan was on the court. 

After a lukewarm first-round series, Tyler Herro came out hot with 25 points, and Bam Adebayo delivered a massive double-double to carry the Heat on a night when Jimmy Butler’s shot wasn’t falling. 

Philadelphia will once again be without Embiid, but Miami also has all of Herro, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and P.J. Tucker on the injury report as game-time decisions. Kyle Lowry will miss a fourth straight contest.

Here are my picks and predictions for Wednesday’s NBA matchup between the 76ers and Heat (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

76ers vs. Heat Game Info

Date: Wednesday, May 4, 7:30 p.m. ETTV: TNTLocation: FTX Arena, Miami, FL

76ers vs. Heat Odds Analysis

This one opened as high as Heat -9 but has come down on most sportsbooks. After a comfortable Game 1 win and a 4-1 series in the first round, Miami is drawing 79% of the tickets and 86% of the cash.

The total opened at 206.5 and has risen as high as 207.5. The total of Game 1 reached only 198, but 207.5 is still very low in today’s NBA, even for defense-centric squads. It’s no wonder that 80% of tickets and 73% of cash are on the over. 

76ers vs. Heat Picks

76ers -8 (-110) ????Under 207.5 (-110) ?????James Harden Under 22.5 points (-110) ?????

SEE ALSO: All NBA Picks

76ers vs. Heat Predictions

76ers -8 (-110)

Philly was historically bad in Monday's loss. The Sixers shot a combined 6-of-34 from three, just 17.6%. That set a franchise record for the worst 3-point performance in any game with at least 30 attempts. The Sixers lost by 14, but if even three of those missed triples went in, we’d be talking about a five-point game that Philly covered.

Not all of Philly’s struggles were self-imposed, however. Miami sports a 103.0 defensive rating through six playoff games, the second-lowest among playoff teams. While the Heat’s defense is elite, the Sixers have a ton of room for improvement and positive regression. Philly led through the first two quarters of Game 1, and the 14-point loss could have been much worse considering the poor shooting.

The Sixers were bad with Jordan at center, and at times the team went with Georges Niang or Tobias Harris at the five. Paul Reed was the best of the bunch but couldn’t stay on the court due to foul trouble. Niang went 0-of-7 from the field. Harris was tremendous with 27 points, but the Sixers won’t win many games with him as the leading scorer.

The Sixers will need a better showing from everyone on the roster to win this game, and after Game 1, there’s nowhere to go but up. Philly should bounce back, and with so many Heat players banged up, the Sixers have the edge against the spread on Wednesday.

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Over 207.5 (-110)

We took the Over for Game 1 at 208, and the teams combined for just 198 points. In fact, these teams have hit the Under in four of five meetings this season. Despite the low-scoring history, we’re going back to the well with the Over. 

I expected this to be a faster-paced game without Embiid in the lineup, and that’s what we got. In four prior meetings, the Heat and Sixers averaged 160.5 total shot attempts, but they combined for 171 in Game 1. The problem was that both teams were highly inefficient. The process was right, but the results weren’t.

Miami shot 43.5% from the field and 25% from three in Game 1. The field-goal percentage was one of the lowest in 2021-22, and the Heat shot worse than 25% from beyond the arc only three times in the regular season. The Sixers shot 17.5% from three in Game 1 and had just one less efficient game during the regular season. Positive regression is due for both teams, and if the shot attempts stay close to the number featured in Game 1, this should go Over comfortably.

Harden Under 22.5 points (-110)

Harden has failed to score 23 points in each of his last 13 games, and Game 2 against the Heat doesn’t sound like a good time to bet on him breaking that streak. "The Beard" has hit that benchmark in just seven of 28 games since arriving in Philly. He’s shooting just 40.2% from the field with the Sixers and attempting only 13.5 shots per contest.

With Embiid still out, the Heat can put the pressure on Harden and force him into some bad shots or make him get teammates involved. Miami has been stifling against opposing guards in the playoffs, and the team held Trae Young to 15.4 points on 31.9% shooting in the first round. I’m taking the Under with confidence.

Daily Betting Picks

NHL Best Bets TodayMLB Best Bets TodayToday's Top Sports Betting Odds Boosts

Where to Bet on 76ers-Heat Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

76ers-Heat picks made on 5/4/2022 at 12:49 p.m. ET.