'Over' & Clippers -2, Bold NBA Picks as L.A Visits Phoenix

Darin Zank

Thursday, November 12, 2015 6:40 PM GMT

Thursday, Nov. 12, 2015 6:40 PM GMT

The Clippers own the recent rivarly with the Suns, winning the last eight meetings in a row, going 4-3-1 against the NBA odds. Can they cover a bucket in Phoenix Thursday night?

Clippers-Suns Betting Odds
Most of Thursday's NBA odds Market opened this game with Los Angeles favored by 2.5 points, the total offered at right around 209. In the early betting both those figures were holding fairly steady.

Bettors thinking Phoenix might pull the upset here as a home dog could get a price of +125 on the NBA betting moneyline at 5Dimes.

 

The Situation
Los Angeles (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS) has lost three of its last four games, after falling at Dallas Wednesday night 118-108. The Clippers led that game by a bucket midway through the fourth quarter, but allowed the Mavericks to end the game with a 14-2 run, missing out on the cover as six-point road dogs.

On the night LA only shot 43 percent from the floor, while the Mavs shot a hot 55 percent.

Monday night the Clippers beat Memphis 94-92, but just before that they lost to Houston 109-105, and just before that they lost at Golden State 112-108. But those are two tough losses to two pretty good teams.

Phoenix (3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS) has also lost three of its last four games, after going down at Oklahoma City Tuesday night 124-103. The Suns trailed throughout, often by double-digits, pulled within nine points early in the fourth quarter, but allowed the Thunder to go on a 20-5 run, couldn't recover and lost ATS as eight-point dogs.

Phoenix shot 45 percent from the floor Tuesday night, but allowed OKC to shoot 52 percent and committed 23 turnovers.

Last Sunday the Suns lost at home to Detroit 100-92, shooting just 40 percent from the floor. So Phoenix is having a little trouble throwing the ball in the hole at the moment.

 

Suns-Clippers Recent History
Los Angeles has beaten Phoenix eight times in a row, including just 10 days ago, a 102-96 decision at Staples Center. The Clippers shot 45 percent from the floor that night, while the Suns shot just 37 percent. But Phoenix held on for the cover as an eight-point dog.

Last season Los Angeles swept four games from Phoenix, winning once in overtime, but three times by at least 11 points.

Also, three of last season's meetings played OVER the totals, but that game 10 days ago played UNDER a total of 208.

 

Totals Trends
LA is 5-3 on the OVERS this season, as Clips games have averaged 209 points.

Phoenix is 4-3 on the UNDERS, as Suns games have averaged 204 points.

 

Injury Update
Los Angeles sharpshooter JJ Redick (15 PPG) has a sore back and is doubtful to play tonight.

 

Clips-Suns Free NBA Picks
Los Angeles is the better team here; it's shooting the ball better than Phoenix, playing better defense, and taking better care of the ball, committing just 13 turnovers per game, compared to almost 17 TO's per game for the Suns. Also, the Clips own the recent rivalry, beating Phoenix eight times in a row. And playing for the second consecutive night doesn't mean anything to us. We like LA here, the better team, at a short spread.

As for the total, six of the last seven meetings in this series would have played OVER tonight's number, and we'll buy that with our NBA Picks this Thursday night.

NBA Picks: Clippers -2 at JustBet and OVER 209 at Bookmaker

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