Heat vs. Grizzlies: Slow Paced-Game & Good Defense Makes 'Under' Our NBA Pick

Jordan Sharp

Tuesday, December 29, 2015 6:05 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 29, 2015 6:05 PM UTC

Tuesday’s short slate brings about some nice NBA Odds value, and one of those games is the Heat traveling into Memphis. Don't make a move without reading this article.

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NBA Pick: UNDER 190.5
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker


Dwyane Wade Injury Update
In the Heat’s game last night, Dwyane Wade took a hard fall and bruised his hip. While he was able to eventually return to the game, his status for tonight may be in jeopardy. If Wade is unable to play tonight, the Heat are going to have even more trouble scoring the ball. Miami already has issues scoring the ball on the road some, and if this is the case this evening, even if Wade plays, the total looks like a nice play tonight.

Memphis and Miami both play at two of the slower paces in the league, and they both have pretty good defenses because of it. Miami and Memphis are both solid defensively without playing slow, but their slow pace helps them not give up too many points. However, the injury situation for both teams could limit both teams tonight. The Heat might once again be without their young defensive stud, Justice Winslow, but reports are that he could possibly be ready to play by tonight’s game after missing last night.

On the other side, the Grizzlies will be without Matt Barnes for this game but it won’t be because of injury. Barnes was suspended two games for his role in an altercation with Derrick Fisher over the Knicks’ coach getting a little too cozy with Barnes’ ex-wife. Barnes has been integral in the Grizzlies turnaround from their slow start this season, because he has been starting at the small forward in Memphis’ small lineup. Without him it remains to be seen whether Memphis will go back to their big lineup of Jeff Green at the three and Zach Randolph at the four. Memphis might choose to go even smaller tonight and bring the Grind-father, Tony Allen back into the starting lineup at the small forward. If Wade plays Allen is going to have to play more minutes than he had to against the Lakers the other night, and it might be the answer for tonight and their next game without Barnes.


The Sharp Pick
Either way it goes in this one in regards to the injuries, it looks like this game will be the lowest scoring game of the night. With a total of 190 points though, I think the sportsbooks are underestimating the Heat’s defense coming off the back to back, and while it’s the lowest total of the night, the under still looks like a profitable wager. The Heat cash the under at 2/1 this season, and combined these two teams have cashed the under at 38-25 on the year. Miami is 8-2 cashing the under in their ten road games already this season, and even though Memphis has been cashing the over more at home, they were also doing that early in the season when their defense was falling apart.

The under is now 5-2 in Memphis’ last seven games overall this season, and the under is an incredible 16-8 in the last 24 meetings these two teams have had dating back to the early 2000s. With the Heat giving up only 95 points per game to Western Conference teams so far this season, look for the under to cash in this one for your NBA pick tonight.

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