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ATP Finals Grand Finale: Alexander Zverev vs. Daniil Medvedev Betting Picks

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ATP Finals Grand Finale: Alexander Zverev vs. Daniil Medvedev Betting Picks
Russia's Daniil Medvedev. Photo by Alexey Filippov / Sputnik via AFP.

Will Daniil Medvedev become the first to retain an ATP Finals trophy since Novak Djokovic did it four years in a row from 2012 to 2015? Find out where we lean in our Alexander Zverev versus Medvedev picks.

Coming into the tournament, Alexander Zverev made sure to let people know his yearly accomplishments hadn’t been respected enough and has proven that point further by making it to the final, eliminating Djokovic in a close three-set semifinal. Confident behind both first and second serve, along with his elite baseline game, he will like his chances of scoring a second Finals title.

The only undefeated player left in this edition of the ATP Finals is also the reigning champion. Having been pushed to the distance in all group-stage matches, Medvedev had no mercy to offer Casper Ruud, who was swiftly disposed of by a 6-4, 6-2 semifinal scoreline. After losing five of the first six head-to-head matchups against Zverev, the Russian has now won five in a row dating back to the Paris Masters last year.

Here are my picks and predictions for Sunday’s ATP Finals Grand Final matchup between Alexander Zverev vs. Daniil Medvedev. (Odds via Draftkings; pick confidence based on 1-to-5-star scale).

Zverev vs. Medvedev Match Info

Date/Time: Sunday, November 21, 11 a.m. ET
TV: Tennis Channel
Location: Centre Court, Turin, Italy

Zverev vs. Medvedev Odds Analysis

Following five consecutive losses in this mouthwatering matchup, the top sportsbooks have no choice but to make Zverev the underdog here, with FanDuel holding the best price at +162.

Medvedev opened -200 on most books, but Foxbet is offering a nice little discount with its -189 pricing, and DraftKings isn't far behind at -190.

Zverev vs. Medvedev Picks

Over 22.5 games (-125) ★★★
Medvedev 2-1 (+330) ★

SEE ALSO: All Tennis Betting Odds

Zverev vs. Medvedev Predictions

Over 22.5 games (-125)

Despite being in dire straits in most of his matches this week, Medvedev has been incredibly clutch in the key moments. His massive serve has also been near impossible to break, as he has only faced nine break points all tournament and been broken but twice (both came against Jannik Sinner in a dead rubber).

At the same time, Medvedev has been the best returner in the world this year on hard courts, winning a staggering 42.9 percent of return points total, 35 percent against first serves, 57.1 percent against second serves, and has been aced on only 4.3 percent of occasions.

Zverev has also battled hard this week, especially in his semifinal against Djokovic, the world No. 1. The German was superb on serve, winning 78 percent of first-serve points and 63 percent (compared to Djokovic's 41 percent!) of second-serve points against the best returner of all time.

Broken but once, he also excelled from the baseline, especially so in the long, grueling, physical rallies in which Djokovic often simply refuses to miss. Zverev dominated these exchanges though, winning almost twice as many points in rallies over nine shots.

In the group stage Medvedev matchup, Zverev held a 4-2 deciding set tiebreak lead before falling 8-6. Expect the German to keep things close once again. DraftKings is offering an O/U 22.5 total here with the market otherwise aligned on O/U 23.5, and we will take advantage in our Zverev versus Medvedev picks.

Medvedev 2-1 (+330)

This will be the third meeting between this pair in just 15 days and beating a player five times in a row in tennis is difficult, not to mention stringing consecutive victories together in a short time span. Still, on these fast hard courts, you cannot go against Medvedev at the moment.

It's worth noting that three of his five consecutive Zverev victories went the distance, including two of three this year.

While the German wasn't up for the match in Paris (where the slower conditions also hurt his chances of hitting through Medvedev), he will be here. Look for a cracking contest that Medvedev ekes out in a decider once more.

Zverev vs. Medvedev picks made 11/21/2021 at 4:43 a.m. ET