SBR’s Al Mac went 5-2 in last week’s XFL article, but just 2-2 on his best bets. We head into week 3 of the XFL season with some very solid and intriguing matchups with football familiarity. Here is our breakdown of the XFL Week 3 slate.
XFL Power Ratings – Week 3
(Weekly upgrade in brackets)
- #1 – DC +8 (+5.8)
- #2 – Houston +4.5 (-3.8)
- #3 – Dallas +3.5 (+7.3)
- #4 – Tampa +2 (-0.5)
- #5 – St. Louis +1.5 (-2.2)
- #6 – Seattle -1 (+1)
- #7 – New York -9 (-6.2)
- #8 – Los Angeles -10 (-1.6)
Tampa Bay Vipers (0-2) vs. Houston Roughnecks (2-0)
Saturday, February 22, 2020 – 02:00 PM EST
Coming into week 3, I have the Tampa Bay Vipers ranked as the #4 team in the XFL. This is a rating that may be disputed – but my reasoning is simple. We haven’t seen enough from this team to cross them off and deem them a non-factor just yet. To put it simply, I think Tampa can hang with Houston this weekend and I welcome the over-reaction on Tampa’s poor performances to start the year. Coupled with the market reaction to Houston’s firepower, this may be a perfect storm situation to be backing the Vipers in their home opener. Tampa Bay’s head coach Marc Trestman is familiar with Houston HC June Jones, as both coached against each other in the CFL just a few years ago. These guys know each other’s tendencies very well. I think it’s going to be a tight, low scoring game. However, I could be wrong. If Tampa Bay puts up another no-show performance this weekend – I will write them off for good, but I think there is value on a team that isn’t as bad as their record and overall performance has shown.
Based on my XFL power ratings (via SparkSports.ca), Tampa should be about a half-point better than Houston at home – depending on their home field advantage, which has been hard to gauge so far in the XFL this season. Houston has been a far superior team putting up almost a half yard per play on average more than Tampa. However, when you compare both these teams defensively – they are neck and neck and ranked #2 and #3 in the XFL as far as overall defense goes. I think there is value on Tampa here.
As far as the total, these are two of the top 3 defensive teams in the XFL over the first two weeks. They have combined for an average game total of 39.5 points, and this total sits at 46. I think the XFL odds market is anticipating Houston to put up numbers on Tampa, although Tampa may be a much better team at home. Give me the under in this one.
Seattle Dragons (1-1) vs. Dallas Renegades (1-1)
Saturday, February 22, 2020 – 05:00 PM EST
My power ratings have Dallas about a point and a half better than Seattle on the road here. We saw the crowd come out in Seattle in week 2, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the numbers were bigger for their second home game in as many weeks. I think Seattle can hang around a Dallas team that may be slightly overvalued with the Landry and Stoops combo. Give me Seattle +4 here.
As far as the total, Seattle is actually allowing fewer yards per play on defense than the Renegades. These two teams have averaged just 35.7 points per game between the two of them after 2 weeks, and this total currently sits at 44. I think there is a decent amount of value on the under in this game.
St. Louis BattleHawks (1-1) vs. New York Guardians (1-1)
Sunday, February 23, 2020 – 03:00 PM EST
St. Louis is a bit of an enigma coming into this week 3 match-up vs New York. They are the 4th best offense in the league as far as net yards per play but have only a +2 point differential. When pitting these two offenses against each other, I think it is more than reasonable to think the BattleHawks put up margin on New York in this one. St. Louis is putting up +1.1 more yards per play than New York after two weeks of football. Give me St.Louis -8.5 in this one.
As for the total, this is the lowest number on the board in week 3 at 41 – which is understandable – considering both these teams have combined for an average game total of just 32.3. With this total sitting at 41, I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw a very low scoring affair. Give me the under 41 in a game with a very low production offense, and a St. Louis team that knows how to milk the clock when needed.
LA Wildcats (0-2) vs. DC Defenders (2-0)
Sunday, February 23, 2020 – 06:00 PM EST
It may seem a little bit excessive, but based on my power ratings and the performances of these two teams coming into week 3 – I have DC as 21 points better than LA on the road here. The Wildcat’s offense is only better than the lowly New York Guardians, and their defense is by far the worst in the league (allowing 6.2 yards against per play). Adding to the fact that LA is clearly the team in this league that will struggle attendance-wise all season. You are taking the best overall team in the league and facing them against a team that has performed very poorly over two weeks, and have very little support to go along with it. Give me the Defenders by a lot in this one.
As far as the total goes, this is the only game in which I have even considered taking the over. However, at a more in-depth look, it seems the value is still on the under in a game where these two teams have combined for an average game total of 43.5. At the current number of 45.5, I could very well see DC winning this game by a score along the lines of 28-3. Give me UNDERS across the board in week 3.
Al Mac’s Best Bets – XFL Week 3:
- Tampa +6 at +100 (via BetOnline)
- Seattle +4.5 at -110 (via Heritage)
- St. Louis -8.5 at -110 (via 5Dimes)
- TB/HOU Under 46 at -110 (via Heritage)
- SEA/DAL Under 44 at -110 (via 5Dimes)
- STL/NY Under 41 at -110 (via Bovada)
- DC/LA Under 44 @ -110 (via 5Dimes)
AlMac’s Best Bets – XFL 2020 Record: 2-2, -0.18u