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Matt Jones #24 of the St. Louis Battlehawks carries the ball as Doran Grant #21 of the DC Defenders defends during the first half of the XFL game at Audi Field on March 8, 2020 in Washington, DC.
Matt Jones #24 of the St. Louis Battlehawks carries the ball as Doran Grant #21 of the DC Defenders defends during the first half of the XFL game at Audi Field on March 8, 2020 in Washington, DC. Scott Taetsch/Getty Images/AFP

Two weeks ago, the DC Defenders and St. Louis BattleHawks combined for 64 points in the XFL season's highest-scoring game. With each team built to expose the other’s defensive weakness, it only makes sense to include the game total for Saturday’s rematch in our Week 5 XFL best bets.

It’s hard to believe the XFL regular season is almost at the halfway point. Last week provided bettors with more data points as to each team's strengths and weaknesses. While a month’s worth of data certainly aids in handicapping the league, betting lines should also keep getting tighter as oddsmakers make their own adjustments.

Week 5 of the XFL season gets started in the late-night window Thursday with a very interesting matchup between the undefeated Houston Roughnecks and the Seattle Sea Dragons. Three more games take place over the course of the weekend with Saturday’s rematch between the Defenders and BattleHawks serving as the headliner.

Here are our XFL best bets for Week 5 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and SuperBook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Week 5 XFL Schedule and Odds

(odds via SuperBook as of Friday, March 17 at 8:35 a.m. ET)

  • DC Defenders (-2) vs. St. Louis BattleHawks
  • Orlando Guardians vs. Vegas Vipers (-7.5)
  • Arlington Renegades vs. San Antonio Brahmas (-3)

Week 5 XFL Best Bets

  • Defenders vs. BattleHawks Over 42 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Guardians +7.5 (-110 via SuperBook) vs. Vipers ⭐⭐⭐
  • Renegades vs. Brahmas Under 35.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Week 5 XFL Top Picks

Roughnecks -9 (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Guardians ⭐⭐⭐

As expected, the BattleHawks got back in the win column last week in front of an electric home crowd of nearly 40,000. Week 5 gives St. Louis an opportunity to avenge its only season loss on the road against the Defenders just two weeks ago.

In the season's first two weeks, both the Defenders and BattleHawks showed flashes of promise offensively but lacked consistency. D.C. quarterback Jordan Ta’amu rebounded nicely in the last two weeks. The same can be said of St. Louis QB A.J. McCarron, who threw four touchdown passes in the Week 3 head-to-head meeting.

Each team seems built to expose the other’s defensive weakness. The Defenders went to work on a St. Louis run D that allowed over 105 yards per game in Week 3 with 39 total attempts. With two quality backs in Abram Smith and Ryquell Armstead, look for D.C. to run the ball plenty again Saturday.

On the other side of the ball, McCarron attempted 42 passes two weeks ago against a Defenders' defense that gave up an XFL most passing yards per game (232.2). Wideout Hakeem Butler went off in the 6-point loss, but the BattleHawks have other capable passing weapons much more comfortable playing at home.

After combining for 62 points in what's still the highest-scoring contest of the year two weeks ago, favor the offenses again in the rematch. DraftKings’ line of 42 is the one to target as it currently sits a half-point lower than the totals listed at other books.

Guardians +7.5 (-110 via SuperBook) vs. Vipers ⭐⭐⭐

Even though both the Orlando Guardians and Las Vegas Vipers come into Saturday’s showdown winless this season, odds heavily favor the home team. Vegas should pick up its first victory of the year and lays a full touchdown or more across the XFL betting market.

There’s no denying Vegas played better offensively in the last two weeks. The one wrinkle was the switch back to Luis Perez at quarterback in Week 4. While he played better than when we last saw him, the Vipers still only managed 6 points through the first three quarters against D.C.

It remains to be seen what head coach Rod Woodson’s QB plan is in Week 5. Regardless, the real concerns for Vegas lie on defense. The Vipers allow 366.8 yards per game to opponents, by far the most of any XFL team. A large chunk of this (157.0 YPG to be exact) came on the ground.

Despite all of the Guardians’ struggles, they managed to post a 4.0 yards per carry average through four games. While several of those contests featured garbage time, that mark still ranks a league third. 

If Orlando finds success via the run and controls the time of possession, this matchup could be closer than most expect. Bet on the underdogs to cover at SuperBook, where the line of +7.5 sits half a point higher than other major books.

Renegades vs. Brahmas Under 35.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Aside from a big win over lowly Orlando in Week 2, the San Antonio Brahmas struggled mightily on offense to begin the year. This trend continued last week against Seattle as San Antonio finished with just 210 total offensive yards. Quarterback Jack Coan found himself on an island as the Brahmas' rushing attack only mustered 21 yards. 

In Week 5, the Brahmas host the Arlington Renegades in the first head-to-head meeting this year between these in-state foes. There was optimism surrounding the Renegades’ offense coming into the season with Kyle Sloter at quarterback. However, they've struggled to move the chains and sustain drives through the first four weeks.

The game total of 35.5 for this matchup is the lowest on the Week 5 XFL betting board. Diving further into team stats makes it easy to see why. The Brahmas and Renegades are the league's bottom two offenses in both yards per passing attempt and yards per carry. San Antonio only scored seven offensive touchdowns this year while Arlington had just four. The Renegades’ defense scored half as many times as their offense!

Combine the offensive struggles with both team's solid defensive play and there’s no reason to shy away from backing the Under, even at the low number. Bettors will want to jump at DraftKings’ line of 35.5, a half-point higher than some other books in the market.

XFL Best Bets for Week 5 made 3/16/2023 at 2:34 p.m. ET.

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