WTA Australian Open Day 1 - Main Favorite Spread Analysis

João Mourato

Saturday, January 16, 2016 8:49 PM GMT

Saturday, Jan. 16, 2016 8:49 PM GMT

On this article we’ll analyze the three main favorite players’ spread for the Australian Open Day 1 on Women's Draw. Find out the highest value bets and the best sportsbook to place your wager.

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Serena Williams (1) vs. Camila Giorgi
The top seed and defending champion, Serena Williams, will face Camila Giorgi at the Australian Open first round.

Giorgi is always an extremely dangerous player to face, the Italian is one of the biggest hard hitters on tour and very hard to stop when she’s on fire. Last year Giorgi did a good run on this event, where she was very close from eliminating Venus Williams on third round. Camila is usually able to give a very good fight to her opponents on the first set, but struggles to keep that game level for much longer – as it happened already this year at Brisbane where she lost to Angelique Kerber by 7 – 5 3 – 6 0 – 6.

As we mentioned in our tournament preview, Serena Williams struggled with a knee injury before this event. The American is still the main favorite for this competition; however, she’s currently priced much higher than she was a few weeks ago.

They played last year at Fed Cup, where Serena won by 7 – 6 6 – 2. As we said before, Camila is usually able to give a very good fight on first set and the same might happen on this match. The spread for Serena is currently at -6.0 (-114) on Pinnacle and we suggest to avoid betting on it before the match. Our advice is to wait for a closer first set, taking advantage of a lower spread line that Williams should cover in the second set.

 

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Agnieszka Radwanska (4) vs. Christina McHale
The WTA Singapore Finals champion and 2014 Australian Open semifinalist, Agnieszka Radwanska, will play against Christina McHale on her debut.

Expectations were high for McHale after the American reached top 25 in 2012, but since then she has struggled to live up to the expectations. Christina has a very good top spin forehand, however her backhand is not so reliable and for that reason, she tries to hit very often the runaround forehand. McHale struggles against solid baseline players with good counterpunching skills and we saw that at Auckland this year, where she lost 0 – 6 2 – 6 against Caroline Wozniacki.

After ending 2015 at great level, the start of 2016 was equally outstanding for Agnieszka, winning the title at Shenzhen. The Polish said her biggest goal for 2016 was to win her first Grand Slam event.

This will be the 4th career meeting between these two players, with Radwanska leading 3 – 0 on h2h after three expressive victories. The spread is placed at -8.0 (+100) and might seem a very high line, however Agnieszka covered that handicap in two of their three previous matches (in the other it was void). Radwanska counter punching skills seem just too much for McHale and we advise to add to your tennis picks the value on Agnieszka’s spread tennis odds.

 

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Nao Hibino vs. Maria Sharapova (5)
The 2008 Australian Open champion and three times runner-up, Maria Sharapova, will start her campaign against Nao Hibino.

This will be Hibino’s first career match at a Grand Slam main draw. The Japanese had a good start of season, reaching quarterfinals in Auckland and second round in Hobart. Nao is a classic Asian player, trying to hit the ball extremely early and at a very high pace. This will be Hibino’s first match against a top 10 opponent; in fact, the highest ranked player she faced was Giorgi – currently world no. 35.

Sharapova decided to withdraw from Brisbane with a left forearm injury, but she said was only to guarantee she would be ready for this event. The conditions in Melbourne suit Sharapova’s game style, the higher bounce allows Maria to hit the ball at perfect height.

Not only is Hibino playing her first Grand Slam main draw, she’s also playing against a top 10 for the first time on her career. All this might be too much for the Japanese while Sharapova feels extremely comfortable against this kind of opponents. The spread is at -7.5 (-114) on Pinnacle and we believe she can cover this handicap.

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