World Cup Qualifiers Picks For Friday's Europe Action

Stuart Woodrow

Friday, November 11, 2016 5:00 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 11, 2016 5:00 PM UTC

The path for the World Cup continues in Europe and there are some interesting matchups, our expert capper Stuart Woodrow gives his take on the many matches on today's fixture, and provides some soccer picks for you.


[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]

The World Cup qualifiers continue this Friday and with just one tie that look like walkover (San Marino vs Germany) there are a few competitive games that are worth taking a look at to try to find some betting value.

Of course the “BIG” game for many will be the England v Scotland match and we’ll come to that later but away from there you’ll find interesting matches like the Czech Republic v Norway, France v Sweden and Romania v Poland. All of which have at least one betting opportunity in my eyes.


Czech Republic v Norway

The bookies have the Czech Republic as favorites for this one and I understand why. Historically they have been the better side and will be well motivated to pick up a win at home against a Norway side that hasn’t done much of note recently.

These two sides are very close to each other on the table and they only have 1 win between them but this is a group that either side could qualify from.

I make the odds on the Match Odds market just about right for this one. The Czech Republic have won 50% of the matches between these two sides and the bookies have them down at about evens. Anything above evens does offer value in my eyes and a few bookies are trying to tempt people in with odds up to 2.05.

Of course, odds shouldn’t just be calculated on head to head results. If you check out the recent form of both sides then you start to see an issue. Neither side has pulled up any sticks over the last few months and this game could very well end up a lot more even than some would expect.

With that in mind, I think the odds of 3.4 (at Pinnacle) for the draw are quite attractive. This isn’t a game I’ll be going big on but a small wager is worth it.


France v Sweden

I think the odds are wrong in this one. The French are a good side with some excellent players but too many are yep to impress at club level this season and that kind of thing can spill over into a players form at international level. Sweden is typically a side that is tough to break down and there is no way they’ll be looking to play an open game against a French side that will hurt them if given the chance. I’m not foolish enough to go for a straight away win here (even if that is the value call), instead, I’m looking to the Double Chance market and backing both the draw and the away win (x2). At odds of 4 with bet365, I think there’s enough value there to get me interested and it’s also a bet I can see winning.


Romania v Poland

Back in my younger days, I remember Romania being an exciting side to watch, filled with talent but a little bit delicate at the back. One thing has remained since those days but unfortunately for the Romanians, it isn’t the talent. They can still look good on their day (they won by 5 goals away in Armenia) but against any half decent side, they look liable to crumble. That’s why I’m backing Poland to do the business in this one.

Pinnacle are offering odds of 2.65 on the away win and that’s enough to get me involved. Part of me thinks I could take this further with the Asian Handicap market but I’m ignoring that and will be happy with a 1 goal win.


England v Scotland

I know I shouldn’t bet on this one. I have an emotional interest in this one as an Englishman who wants his side to do well. All bettors should try to be objective in their decisions and that means avoiding games just like this one. Let’s be honest, neither side is doing brilliantly well right now. England has flattered to deceive on more than one occasion and Scotland has been downright poor in this qualification period so far.

So I shouldn’t bet on this one.

I shouldn’t listen to that voice that says “Englands players are starting to prove themselves in the league and play with more confidence”, I shouldn’t look at the head to head records which have seen England win 62% of these matches.

I shouldn’t bet on this one but you know I will, so do I.

England -1 is available at 5Dimes at odds of 1.61.

comment here