World Cup Picks: Best Value Bets Group G

Nila Amerova

Wednesday, June 4, 2014 12:05 PM GMT

Group G presents one of the toughest handicapping prospects for fans of World Cup betting, as Germany, Portugal, Ghana and USA are all drawn together, serving up the proverbial ‘group of death’ in the competition.


Germany group masters
Germany, making their 16th appearance at the finals, boast one of the most consistent records of all nations at the group level: they have advanced beyond the group stage in 15 World Cups, and won their group at six successive finals.

So formidable does Die Mannschaft loom, they are expected to win Group G across all sportsbook platforms. They have top spot cornered on -200 soccer odds in group betting markets, and lending weight to those odds are various other markets, including their odds to simply advance into the knockouts, which are set to a prohibitive price of -800.

Joachim Low led his Bundesliga baubles through to the semis of the 2010 World Cup, and 2012 Euro Cup. They also reached the 2006 World Cup semis under then manager Jurgen Klinsmann, and assistant manager Joachim Low, which is a commendable run of form in major competitions, but not enough for a nation that holds Die Mannschaft to higher standards. It’s all or nothing.

That run of form augurs well for Germany’s campaign in Brazil, at the very least to reach another semi-final, if not go all the way. They certainly have the class, and quality, to do so. You can back Germany to reach the semis +120 and, in turn, to reach the final at +250. If Germany doesn’t reach the semis at least, German press will crucify their campaign and Joachim Low. There’s a lot of pressure, therefore, on Germany to finally deliver on their potential, and they’ve been knocking on that illusive final door for several years now.

Germany’s campaign is set to kick off against Portugal, the group’s second favourites to clinch top spot at +275. As matches go, they couldn’t have drawn a tougher opponent to begin their run in Brazil. Only the world’s best player is contained within the Portuguese camp, Cristiano Ronaldo. The Real Madrid striker is a game-changer, a player that can carry a team on his back. He did exactly that in the playoffs against Sweden to secure his nation’s place in Brazil.  

That said, there is a limit to what one player can do all the time. Teams, not solitary players, usually win games. Towards that end, Die Mannschaft – the whole better than the sum of its individual parts – has the edge. Hence, Germany enters the clash at +115, and Portugal at +240 with the draw trading at +230.

Portugal, nonetheless, are expected to join Germany in the knockouts. To simply qualify, they are listed at -200, well ahead of tricky opponents USA at +260, and Ghana at +275. Portugal have survived previous groups of deaths, as well (as touched on earlier) they survived a Zlatan-Ibrahimovic inspired Sweden in the playoffs. That penchant for survival underscores their favourable odds.

This notion is reflected in group forecast betting where odds on Germany and Portugal (in that order) to advance into the knockouts are tipped the shortest at +150. Also, the reverse order is listed second best at +400. Any other combination in this group begins from +500 and upwards.

Curiously, the third best-priced outcome in this group is Germany and USA to qualify (in that order) at +500, with Germany and Ghana (in that order) coming in as the fourth best priced option at +600. Speaking of which, the possibility of an upset in this group exists. It would be a grievous misrepresentation to say otherwise. Considering, Germany and Portugal open group action against one another while USA and Ghana do the same, it’s quite possible that one, or the other, of the latter pair could move into one of the top two coveted spots, especially if the former cancel each other out on a draw. In such a scenario, group betting in this section would be turned on its head.


World Cup betting Verdict:
Expectations that Germany and Portugal will advance are supported by tangible facts, which means smart money is on that pair. However, backing either USA or Ghana to mastermind the upset in this group isn’t improbable either, so if you are looking for value soccer picks in this section, backing either nation to advance into the knockouts at the expense of Germany or Portugal could prove to be the savvy soccer pick in the end. For our money, however, we’re sticking with the top faves in this section.


Recommended World Cup Free Picks:  
Germany to win Group G at -200; 
Portugal to advance at -200;
Germany and Portugal to advance at +150.