World Cup Odds Update: Wise to Back Underdog Colombia?

Nila Amerova

Friday, July 4, 2014 6:57 PM UTC

Friday, Jul. 4, 2014 6:57 PM UTC

Brazil and Colombia collide in the quarterfinals, a match that many World Cup bettors feel has the potential to surprise. Favourites Brazil are expected to advance into the semi-finals but, arguably, it’s undervalued Colombia that are worth spotting on your World Cup picks.

Brazil top favourites to win it all
Brazil have maintained their claim as the top favourites in the competition to win it right from the start. Opening on +300 odds (or thereabouts) to win outright, Brazil have stayed the course through the group stage and all the way to the quarterfinals. There was an instance when they saw their odds swell marginally – following the scoreless draw to Mexico in the second round of group action – but after winning Group A and outlasting Chile on penalties in a dramatic R16 showdown, Brazil’s odds dropped noticeably, down to +250 approximately, depending on your sportsbook of choice. Where reaching the semis are concerned, Brazil’s odds have been on a steady incline, hovering around -138 around June 20th and moving up to -250 on June 30th, where they’ve stayed put since.

Any expectation in World Cup betting circles that Brazil would soar at these finals, however, were delivered a rude awakening. Brazil weren’t quite so convincing in their opening account with Croatia, they were held to a scoreless draw by a resolute Mexico. Only Cameroon succumbed to a 4-1 blowout, but it wasn’t enough to assuage valid concerns raised by the earlier wobbles. The R16 only went further to underscore those concerns as Chile came very close to end Brazil’s golden hopes. Yet, in spite of all this, Brazil remain the top favourites in the competition as well they are the hot favourites at -250 to reach the semis ( pric? How can World Cup bettors fall in line with these odds when their performance and overall form in the competition leaves much to be desired.

Undervalued Colombians present a value pick
Colombia have been one of the most impressive teams in this finals, so much so that it seems rather disingenuous they are the long shots in just about every relevant market. Winning the competition might be a remote goal, partly down to the fact that they’ve never won a finals and b) partly down to the field contained within the top half of the bracket – Brazil loom in the quarters and either France or Germany in the semis; hence, they are the long shots at +1200 to win the competition. Reaching the semis, however, must be considered attainable. After the second round of Group C action, which featured a 2-1 win over Ivory Coast, Colombia’s odds were listed at +300 to reach the semis.  Immediately after their 2-0 victory over Uruguay, their odds plunged down to +200 and have stayed there ever since. To put it simply, they have about a 30%-ish chance to reach the semis.

Colombia should have bags of confidence following their perfect 3-0-0 record in Group B. In the R16, they backed up their solid run of form – which was highlighted by scoring nine goals and conceding just 2, and saw the rise of James Rodriguez (current leading scorer) to global superstardom – with a 2-0 victory over a demoralised Uruguay. If odds makers aren’t putting much stock in them, they certainly do.

Brazil presents a whole different ball game, naturally. They are the hosts and a nation that has a tradition of success at these finals. What’s more, overall head-to-head record favours Brazil. But that doesn’t mean Colombia are no-hopers in this clash, deserving to be so undervalued that they are matched at +200 to reach the semis. Surely, given their flawless deposit in this competition, they merit shorter odds. Odds that would indicate they would make a match of it against Brazil, give them a serious run for their money.

World Cup Betting Verdict
Ahead of the quarterfinals, it’s worth noting the R16 was tightly contested in just about every match, save for Uruguay’s pitiful deposit against Colombia. Five of the eight matches went into extra time, although easily it could have been seven, but for late goals in regulation time. If this trend holds true, we should have a very interesting quarterfinal round. The R16 saw all the favourites advance, marking a perfect start to the knockouts for bookies. Therefore, backing Brazil at -250 to reach the semis would seem a smart bet. If you are of the same opinion that Colombia are undervalued in this match (as are we), consider backing them on your World Cup picks at +200 to reach the semis. Brazil haven’t looked indomitable so far, which could mean Colombia are the value World Cup pick

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