World Cup Odds: Holland & Costa Rica Favoured to Reach Quarters

Nila Amerova

Saturday, June 28, 2014 2:06 PM GMT

Saturday, Jun. 28, 2014 2:06 PM GMT

Sunday’s World Cup R16 double-header features one of tournament favourites Holland and surprise package Costa Rica, both favoured to reach the quarterfinals. Will the pair come through on their odds or is there an upset on the horizon? Join us as we examine the World Cup odds to reach the quarters.

To Reach the Quarterfinals
With the knockout stages set to get underway, there’s a certain logical approach to be had in World Cup betting markets, because it’s much clearer which nations are the favourites, and which are the underdogs. By the same token, the overwhelming expectation is for favourites to redline their fancied odds and advance. World Cup fans know that nothing is so straightforward, the outcome never really a foregone conclusion. This means there is still wiggle room for the cautious optimist looking for a value upset soccer bet. Towards that end, let’s look at both underdogs in Sunday’s R16 in order to determine the probability of the upset in each match, if at all. 


Holland vs. Mexico
Holland and Mexico get Sunday’s R16 matches underway, with the Dutch favoured to win the match, though not as strongly as one might expect an overall tournament favourite would be. This is partly down to the credible threat Mexico poses in this clash, and their viable odds in the competition proper at +3000. 

Holland, matched at +800 to win it all, are listed as the favourites albeit on the short side of even money at +110. Mexico enter this clash as the +280 underdogs, a decent price tag that certainly doesn’t shut the door on the possibility of an upset. Upwards of +350 would be akin to pricing Mexico steadily out of the market for an upset. As it were, the probabilities are so: Holland are deemed to have around 47.62% chance to win and Mexico have approximately 26.32% chance to win. The draw is trading around +250, which means it’s got around 28.57% chance of coming through.

Based on the probabilities, cautious optimists could definitely look towards this matchup as one to go against the grain. Mexico’s offense can match Holland’s offense on a good day. Where Mexico might have the slight advantage is on defence. Since Miguel Herrera took over the team in October, effectively rescuing their World Cup qualification campaign, El Tri have been defensively sound as well as offensively inspired. Mexico made an unbeaten trek through Group A; most notably, holding Brazil to a scoreless draw.

Mexico isn’t a side Holland should take lightly at all, even if odds makers have Mexico’s campaign topping at the R16: El Tri are tipped at + 150 to reach the quarterfinals to Holland at -182, which in probabilities equates to 40% Mexico and 60% Holland.  This World Cup has delivered its fair share of surprises, so another would be par for the course. Another thing to consider in this World Cup is the fact that it has been rather kind to South American teams, probably because of the huge crowd support and homey feeling.


World Cup Pick: Those looking to back Mexico to win, we can’t say naught against it because it’s a pick that falls into the realm of reasonable probability. Holland should win; Mexico can win, which makes them a tempting +280 pick to win outright and at +150 to advance into the quarters.

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Costa Rica vs. Greece
In the most surprising of R16 matches, Costa Rica and Greece serve up an intriguing World Cup betting prospect in the knockouts. In any other scenario, Costa Rica would most likely have been the underdog. Given they are coming up against Greece they aren’t. Still, odds makers are reluctant to put much stock in their win, matching them at +150 to win outright, which yields a 40% chance. Greece are nipping at their heels at +230 odds, and a 30% chance to win, while the draw is hovering at +210 odds, which yields approximately a 32% chance.

Clearly, this is one of the tightest R16 matchups on the menu, which means there is value on both sides of the coin. Something that is nowhere more so evinced than by their respective odds to reach the quarterfinals as Costa Rica are matched at -138 to reach the quarterfinals to Greece at +105. In terms of probabilities, Costa Rica have about a 57% chance while Greece have about a 48% chance. Talk about splitting hairs.


World Cup Pick: This is going to be one of the toughest matches to call in the R16. Based on group account one has to line Costa Rica’s odds and chances. Greece, however, are an anomaly. It really depends on which Greece arrives on Sunday, the one of the first two matches or the one of the last match. If it’s the former, Costa Rica wins handily. If it’s the latter, all bets would be off,as it could go either way. For our money, we’ve jumped on the Costa Rica wagon, so it’s Los Ticos all the way to the quarters. 

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