World Cup Odds: France & Germany to Reach Quarterfinals

Nila Amerova

Sunday, June 29, 2014 2:42 PM GMT

Runaway favourites France and Germany are expected to emerge into the quarterfinals following Monday’s double-header. Is it really a foregone conclusion or should World Cup bettors consider backing the underdogs? Join us as we preview Monday’s R16 menu and serve up our soccer free picks.

France vs. Nigeria
From the start of the competition, France were expected to win Group E, and advance into the R16. Taking it a step further, bookies installed them as the convincing favourites at -125 to reach the quarterfinals after the first round of Group action concluded. Following a 2-1-0 mark in Group E, which saw them win the section on seven points, all the while scoring 8 goals (one of the highest tallies in the tournament) and conceding just two, France are the hot -450 favourites. The value of those odds increases when considering that their path to the quarters takes them through Nigeria, a tournament long-shot listed at +20000 to win the coveted trophy. Then again, Nigeria forced Argentina to produce some of their best football of the tournament when they collided in the last game of Group F action. The 3-2 win over Nigeria was Argentina’s best performance yet and, simultaneously, Nigeria’s most commendable. Any misgivings about Nigeria where measuring up against some of the best teams in the world was concerned were answered, despite the defeat. Certainly, Nigeria could take plenty of positives from that match in order to give France a run for their money. Coming through on their longish +350 odds to qualify into the quarterfinals, though, at the expense of France is a big ask, seemingly impossible if France continue on the verve and swagger with which they closed group action.  


World Cup Betting Verdict:
Nigeria won’t be pushovers. They’ve nothing to lose and everything to gain. But beating France is going to take something extra special, of which the probability is slim to none. So, as far as futures betting goes, France to reach the quarterfinals at -450 is an almost sure pick. If you’re backing France here, you might consider them to reach the semis at +163, and the finals at +500, as well. The deeper France goes, the shorter those odds will get.

Back to the match at hand, if Nigeria impressed against Argentina, it follows they could make things interesting against France. If you agree, here are some additional value World Cup picks we’ve spotted for your consideration. Odds for method of victory: France to win in extra time is listed at +900 while Nigeria to win in extra time is tipped at +2800. On penalties, France are tipped at +1600 and Nigeria +1800. 

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Germany vs. Algeria
Germany have the most fortuitous R16 draw of the lot, drawing Algeria – the quintessential long shots in every aspect of the knockouts. Algeria are the least likely to a) reach the final at +10000, b) reach the semis at +2500 and c) the quarters at +600. As far as winning it all, they are the no-hopers at +22500.

Germany, matched at +400 to win it all (joint, second favourites with Argentina), couldn’t have scripted an easier R16 match had they tried.  By all accounts, Algeria aren’t even expected to test them – match betting odds have Germany listed at -300 to win outright while Algeria at staggering +1100.

That said Germany mustn’t take anything for granted, even if odds makers have practically shipped them into the quarterfinals on -900 odds, a price tag that represents the highest market confidence in a side in this round. The danger Die Mannschaft faces is complacency, underestimating their opponents. Should they do so, anything can happen. Algeria defied the group betting odds to emerge into the knockouts instead of better priced South Korea and Russia. They’ve made history for their nation, a dream come true for all the players involved. Nobody can take that away from them. Similarly, against all the odds, they have a notional shot.  


World Cup Betting Verdict:
In reality, if all goes to plan, Germany should win this match handily. Expect Algeria to give them a good battle in the first half, but Germany to wear them down by full time. Germany to advance into the quarterfinals at -900 is the only World Cup pick to consider here. Germany to win in extra time is tipped at +1000 and on penalties at +2200, but it’s hard to imagine this match coming down to that. 

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