Women's World Cup Betting Odds Analysis & Group Stage Picks

SBR Staff

Friday, June 5, 2015 10:35 PM GMT

Amidst FIFA scandals, there is still profit to be made with soccer picks on the Women’s World Cup, with the USA & German teams topping the soccer betting odds board.  

Women’s World Cup Betting Landscape
Women’s soccer is one of the most top-heavy sports to bet on, and with so much controversy surrounding FIFA lately, SBR handicappers are eager to shed light on the women's camp from a betting perspective. We break down the soccer odds trading in the market for the twenty-four countries vying for this prestigious international title.

Starting on June 6th, each team will play the other teams in their groups before advancing to the knockout stage. Note the FIFA points awarded to each team when forming your predictions for Group stage winners.

Group A : Canada -166, Netherlands +600,  China +650, New Zealand  +1400 
With home field advantage, the Canadian women are favored by the soccer odds to win Group A, but are sixth in line to win the Title (+1400 odds from bet365), and have under 60% chances of defeating Holland in the first round.  A dangerous underdog worthy of backing with soccer picks, the Orange are available at +600 odds. This team includes a player considered by soccer enthusiasts to be the “most gifted in Europe,” and the “Arjen Robben of the women’s game.”

Soccer Pick: Netherlands to Finish in Top-Two of Group A: -120 at William Hill

 

Group B: Germany -633, Norway +650, Ivory Coast +10000, Thailand +50000
The women’s German soccer team is being offered at +300 to win the World Cup in 2015, and is a huge runaway favorite to win Group B, having won the 2nd spot in FIFA point rankings. They face Ivory Coast on Sunday, and soccer odds makers have set the chalk at an astounding price of -4100. For risky gamblers interested in taking a chance with a very large dog, an Ivory Coast win would pay out at odds of +6600.

Soccer Pick: Germany to Finish First & Norway to Finish Second in Group B: -300 at BetVictor

 

Group C: Japan -400, Switzerland +550,  Cameroon +5000, Ecuador +450
Leading the Group C betting odds, Japan’s team includes Homare Sawa, who has been in five previous World Cup tournaments, including in 2011 when Japan won the title. This 36-year old midfielder was named Player of the Year in 2011 and is certainly a player worth spotting in the Player Prop betting markets, as she has scored 11 career goals in global tournaments.  

Soccer Pick: Japan & Switzerland Dual Forecast in Group C: -250 at BetVictor

 

Group D: USA -250, Sweden +320,  Australia +1400, Nigeria +5000 
The USA women’s team was given the number 1 spot by FIFA rankings but statistics show that the USA team have only a 75% chance of winning their group, dubbed the “Group of Death,” as Sweden could very well pull the upset. Also worth noting, the Nigerian team includes the 2014 FIFA Golden Ball Award winner, Asisat Oshoala. Savvy bettors will also keep on the look-out for player performance odds offered for Abby Wambach, noting that she set the record with 182 goals for the US.

Soccer Pick: Sweden to Finish Top Two in Group D: -250 at BWin

 

Group E: Brazil -275, Spain +550, South Korea +900, Costa Rica +12500
Considered a lock by many sports gamblers, Brazil’s women’s team includes the “female Pele” Marta, who has five times earned the FIFA’s player of the year award. An interesting prop bet to expect sportsbooks to offer would be whether or not Marta will break her own record of top scores in the World Cup, currently tied at 14 goals with German Birgit Prinz.  Do keep in mind when placing your bets that the Costa Rican women did place second in the CONCACAF qualifiers, so they could potentially pull upsets in Group stages as their men’s team did in 2014. If this 'Cinderella' surprises, the payout at the betting window would be enormous.

Soccer Pick: Brazil & Spain Dual Forecast: -162 at BetVictor

 

Group F: France -137, England +250, Mexico +2500,  Colombia +4000
Supported by a large fan base, France’s odds of winning this year’s World Cup are improved by having defender Wendie Renard, who scored the opening goal in the UEFA Women’s Champions League in 2011, leading Lyon to the win. Expect the English team to seek revenge against France for kicking them out of the 2011 World Cup quarterfinals and reap the benefits of backing this underdog. 

Soccer Pick: England to Win Group F: +250 at Bet365

Compare Odds Trading in the FIFA Women's World Cup Betting Market 

First Time Using Goal-Line Monitoring System
The ‘Hawk-Eye System’ for monitoring the goal line will be used in the 2015 Canadian World Cup. This fully-automated system has been used in tennis before, but this will be the first time used in the World Cup.  The results are relayed to the referees within one second, and their manufacturers claim that “post-match retributions will soon be a thing of the past.” Those looking to place bets on these matches won’t see much of an impact from this new technology, but we can look forward to more accurate data gathered from each match, should the results be made public after the game (during the match, data will be encrypted), which we can then use to perfect our future picks.

 

Artificial Turf vs. Grass
Heather O’Reilly of the USA women’s team explained the effect of playing on turf instead of grass noting that it will not only result in more injuries, but also will affect the game itself:

 “The ball just moves quite a bit faster on turf so you know, it's out of bounds a lot, there's a lot of throw-ins, things like that. And it's also quite a bit more bouncy. It doesn't roll as easily as it may on grass and it just loses the rhythm of the game and the fluidity of the game."

Women, including Homare Sawa of the Japanese team and Marta of Brazil, withdrew the lawsuit they filed against FIFA and the Canadian Soccer Association in September of 2014, in which they accused the organizers of discrimination by forcing them to use the artificial turf, stating that:  

“Many men's players refuse to play on artificial turf, actually, and the thought of it being played in the World Cup is almost laughable."

To add injury to insult, the installation in Canada of this controversial fake grass occurred only one week ago, although the recommendations from the manufacturers state that 6-10 weeks are needed for it to effectively be broken in.  In order to speed up this process, sand and rubber pieces are used, which MLS soccer players who used the turf earlier this week were not satisfied with, commenting that "every time the ball comes, the sand gets in your eye and rubber gets everywhere.”

 

Betting Trends Worth Noting
Since 1991, the US has won the Women’s World Cup twice (1991 & 1999), Germany has won twice as well (2003 & 2011), Norway won in 1995 and Japan won 2011.  Although this is a small sample size for sports betting analysts to work with, there is one betting trend which cannot be ignored: the margin of victory.

This final score point differential has been declining steadily since the beginning: In 1999 there was a 2.8 goal differential; 2003: 2.5; 2007: 2.3, and in 2011: 1.5 goal differential.

Analysts using advanced statistics also have noted that the rate of upsets (as determined by team probabilities of winning being less than 30% likely) is on the rise.

Stay tuned to SBR for more information and valuable betting angles which you can apply for the Women’s World Cup soccer picks.