Wolfsburg vs. Bayern Munich: Finding Betting Value in This Weekend's Bundesliga Clash

Lee Phelps

Friday, January 30, 2015 6:59 PM UTC

Friday, Jan. 30, 2015 6:59 PM UTC

The best two Bundesliga sides get the second half of the season underway on Friday and our capper has been looking at the stats and betting to find the best odds for his free picks.

The Bundesliga returns with the champions elect in action at their nearest rivals Wolfsburg and as they say in boxing someone’s 0 has to go, unless it’s a draw of course! Bayern Munich haven’t lost a single game all season in amassing 45 points from 17 games, whilst Dieter Hecking’s men are undefeated at the Volkswagen Arena.

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In a strange way this game is almost a dead rubber, despite it being second versus first. Wolfsburg are 11 points behind Pep Guardiola’s team and seven clear of Borussia Monchengladbach, so barring a disaster they will qualify for Champions League football next season and that, to be honest, is all they really have to play for in the Bundesliga.

Hecking has seen his Wolfsburg side lose just once in their last 12 league outings, but they have lost eight in a row against this Friday’s opponents, including the disastrous 1-6 loss in March of last year. To be fair they are a much-improved team and could be able to call on Ivan Perisic (groin) and Naldo (knee) who are both back in training and could be able to help to try to end the terrible run against the champions.

Naldo has been key to Wolfsburg's strong season, starting every league game, scoring five times and he also grabbed the consolation in that heavy defeat at home last season.

They are second in just about every stat you can find, with their rivals top of them all, including goals scored and conceded, shots on target, defensive records and so and so on.


Bayern Munich
This is Munich’s hardest remaining game of their league campaign and are of course on track for a third consecutive German with Guardiola's side ending 2014 with eight successive league victories.

There’s good news on the injury front too with Bastian Schweinsteiger (ankle), Mario Gotze (groin) and Mehdi Benatia (back) all closing in on returns to action, although the Champions League knockout stages are probably more important goals.

Philipp Lahm is further away from a return, despite appearing to be much better during the club's training camp in Doha.

The manager told FourFourTwo magazine: "We know how important the first two or three games will be and if we can win our first couple of games of 2015 then we will realise we can take a big step towards defending our Bundesliga title."

Put simply Bayern score plenty and barely concede, so any bet must centre around them winning and there being goals in the match.


Soccer picks
Despite this looking like a damp squib, it won’t be of course, because pride is at stake on both sides. Bayern will be determined to maintain their unbeaten season, while Wolfsburg would love nothing more than inflicting that first defeat. I see an entertaining game because of that, because pride makes players up their level and obviously a draw is of no real consequence to either side. Over 2.5 goals is too short for me at soccer odds of 1.57 (4/7) even though it will no doubt land, I’d prefer to play the Bayern win with three or more goals in the game at 1.95 (19/20).

If you’re looking to place your soccer picks on the goal scorer option, Thomas Muller has a habit of scoring against Wolfsburg with four in his last three against them and is priced at 2.1 (11/10)

Free soccer pick: Bayern Munich win and Over 2.5 goals 1.95 (19/20)

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