LA Sparks vs Connecticut Sun
The Sparks took down the Seattle Storm with ease in their lone single-elimination game, but that was a much easier task than the one before them now in Connecticut. The Storm have been without their two best players all season and knew at some point they would not have enough to overcome that as they advanced into the playoffs.
However, at one point the Sparks looked like title favorites, but they have some weaknesses that the Sun are going to be able to exploit here.
We already took advantage of the Sparks in their game against the Storm by backing Seattle on the first quarter and the same formula applies here at home.
The Sun are one of the best first-quarter teams in the W and they are even more deadly playing the first 10 minutes of a game at home.
During the regular season, the Sun posted a 109.8 offensive rating in the first quarters, and that jumped to 113.3 when playing at home. Combined with a defensive rating of 96 in the first quarters of their home games, and you have some nice value with the Sun ATS tonight.
The Sparks, on the other hand, have had a ton of trouble early in games. On the road, they are only averaging 91.6 points per 100 possessions in the first quarter, while their defense gave up 104.1.
Simply put, the Sparks may end up upsetting the Sun in the game, but they are going to get blitzed in the first quarter.
Las Vegas Aces at Washington Mystics
The Aces have had a great season with Liz Cambage and company. They are a very young team with a ton of talent, but they are up against a Buzzsaw tonight in the Mystics.
The only game during the regular season where Vegas was competitive against the Mystics was in a game Elena Delle Donne missed because of her fractured nose. In the two games she played, the Mystics blew out the Aces with ease.
Now they are forced from playing a West Coast game on Sunday to playing one on the East Coast Tuesday. While the league chipped in for charter flights for both the Aces and Sparks, it won’t matter in this one.
Similarly to our play above, the Aces have had some trouble scoring early in games, especially on the road. The Mystics, on the other hand, own the league’s best offense, which is at its most deadly early in games.
Washington posted a 129.9 offensive rating in the first quarter of their home games this season, while also owning the league’s best 1st quarter defensive rating.
The Aces, on the other hand, had one of the league’s worst road offenses in the first quarter, averaging just 88.9 points per 100 possessions.
Even though Las Vegas’ defense is very good, they are not good enough to keep the Mystics from dropping 25 points early in this one. With Kristi Toliver back from her rest/injury, there may be nothing stopping the Mystics from running through Las Vegas and the eventual winner of the Sun and Sparks series.
Jordan’s WNBA Picks 53-49-4