Jordan’s WNBA Picks 14-16-1
LA Sparks at Indiana Fever
LA is coming off an ugly loss in Dallas and things won’t get any easier on Friday night as they head into Indianapolis to play the Fever.
Indiana is a different team at home this season and their defense is the biggest difference in their home-road splits. The Fever see close to a six-point swing in points allowed per 100 possessions when they play at home and it is especially true early in games.
It starts early too. The Fever have a 95.3 defensive rating in the first halves of their home games and in the first quarter of their home games, they own the league’s best defensive rating at 81.3.
This is skewed a little thanks to a seven-point quarter from the Liberty early in the season, but it’s also still something that’s actionable with an under play in the first quarter.
The Fever are also horrific offensively in the first quarter of their home games, averaging just 85.3 points per 100 possessions in the first 10 minutes.
The Sparks aren’t too much better. They are averaging just 90 points per 100 possessions in the first quarter this season and on the road is just 87.2.
Candace Parker has already been ruled out for the Sparks too, which leaves some offense off the court to start the game.
The pace is a bit of a concern since the Fever do like to push the pace earlier in games. However, they have played slower some against teams that play pace up all the time, which the Sparks do. Coming off holding the Aces to just 12 points on Wednesday afternoon in the first 10 minutes, I think the Fever can do something similar against the Sparks on Friday night if their defense shows up to start the game.
My Pick: Under 1Q
Best Line Offered: Bovada
New York Liberty at Chicago Sky
Probably my favorite game of the night is the Liberty heading into Chicago to play the Sky. We’ve been burned on some first half overs this week, but I’m once again trusting the process and locking in the over in this one despite some early line movement downward.
For starters, the Liberty have been playing better lately, but this season and especially the last three games, they have given up some points early on.
New York has allowed 41.7 points per first half over their last three games and they have done that with a pace of 103.2 during those three first halves.
That is a nice spot going into Chicago, who play little defense and push the pace early on as well. Chicago has allowed 114.1 points per 100 possessions in the first halves of their last five games and at home, they play at a pace of more than 100 and they average more than 100 points per 100 possessions in the first half at home.
The last time these two faced off, the final score was 91-83, but the Liberty didn’t score much in the first half. I think that changes in this one. I’m going with the first quarter, half, and full game overs in this one.
My Picks: 1Q, 1H and Full Game OVER
Best Lines Offered: Pinnacle