WNBA Picks of The Day: Lagging Teams Lacking Defense Lead To Overs


Jordan’s WNBA Picks 41-41-2

New York Liberty at Dallas Wings

The Liberty may still be trying to fight for a playoff spot, but they have fallen behind the Fever as the first team out of the playoffs, and they are still a handful of games out of a playoff spot.

On top of that, the Liberty have lost two of their most important players at the wrong time. Rookie Asia Durr has already been ruled out, while center Amanda Zahui B I listed as questionable.

The Liberty already play fast and without much defense, but if Zahui B misses again, the Wings may have a chance here on offense at home. Without Zahui B in their last game, the Liberty gave up 89 points to the Lynx at home, and if you add in the six games earlier in the year when Zahui B was playing over in EuroBasket for Sweden, the Liberty have given up nearly 80 points per game when they don’t have their starting center.

However, the full game total is probably a bad line at this point. Neither one of these teams have great offenses, and even at home, I don’t trust the Wings’ offense while Kayla Thornton is still suspended.

However, the first half total looks to be a much better option. Not only do neither of these teams play much first-half defense, but lately that has been even more true.

Dallas has a first-half defensive rating of 109.7 over their last five games, while the Liberty are even worse in their last five first halves, allowing 115.8 points per 100 possessions.

With neither team likely to sniff the playoffs and with both dealing with absences to key players, I see a sloppy game, with lots of fast breaks, fouls, and hopefully made baskets in the first half.

My Pick: OVER 1H

Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

Atlanta Dream at Phoenix Mercury

We saw what happened to the Mercury without Brittany Griner in their last game, as they gave up 78 points to the Sun, including 49 first-half points.

The Dream are nowhere near where the Sun are offensively, or defensively for that matter either. The Dream have had a lot of bad luck this season, but they are not great either and they have been looking like a team that has accepted they are going to be drafting high in the WNBA draft.

Over the Dream’s last five first halves, they have been playing very fast paces, even against some slower-paced teams like the Fever. Atlanta has a first-half pace of 104.2 in their last five first halves. If they try to speed up the Mercury in this one, once again we have a nice spot for a first-half ‘over’ wager.

Over the Mercury’s last five first halves, they have allowed 105.1 points per 100 possessions. Without Griner on the floor once again, they may struggle on offense some, but their defense will take an even bigger hit.

On top of that, without Griner, the Mercury may be forced to play faster, something they rarely do when completely healthy. However, they may not have an option tonight.

My Pick: OVER 1H

Best Line Offered: Pinnacle