Jordan’s WNBA Picks 22-28-1
Chicago Sky at Connecticut Sun
The Chicago Sky are a talented group this season and I think the oddsmakers and general betting public are starting to take notice in their spreads. However, Chicago’s one Achilles heel, their defense, has been really had in certain spots much like tonight.
For instance, on the road this season the Sky are allowing 105.3 points per 100 possessions and it’s mainly been their first-half defense that has been the problem. Over the first 20 minutes of their road games, the Sky are allowing an average of 115.1 points per 100 possessions, which is easily the worst in the WNBA. The Liberty, who rank 11th and second-to-last in first-half road defensive rating, are nearly 10 points better than Chicago.
Needless to say, the Sky have had some problems stopping other teams early in their road games. Considering we are still getting valuable WNBA Odds on the first half total, I’m attacking the over in this one.
Despite holding the Sun to 8 second-quarter points in their first and only meeting this season, these two teams dropped 91 first-half points in Chicago back in late June.
Even though the Sun defense at home is pretty intimidating, the Sky are deep enough to score through the entirety of the first half of this one.
On top of that, the layoff for both teams presents some intriguing spots. After likely not playing basketball much over the last five to seven days, we could see some lax defense early on. It’s not a long enough layoff to affect shooting too much, but I think we could see some bad rotations, turnovers, and plenty of fast breaks and free throws in the first two quarters.
I’m also attacking the first quarter over here as well. Both teams are scoring and allowing more than 100 points per 100 possessions in the first quarter this season and after dropping 54 first-quarter points in their first meeting, 39 is way too low here.
My Picks: OVER 1Q and 1H
Best Lines Offered: BetOnline
Dallas Wings at Las Vegas Aces
If you’ve read any of my stuff this season on the WNBA, it’s almost strictly analytical betting. I’ll throw in some crazy travel stuff every once in a while, or the occasional narrative here or there, but, generally, I like to stick to the numbers.
For the late game between the Wings and Aces though, it’s a mixed bag of both numbers and narratives.
It’s been widely reported on that the All-Star Game was out in Vegas this past weekend and I’m sure the hosts had plenty of appearances and other host-related duties to tend to in the hot summer heat of Vegas. I’m sure some heavy partying was done as well.
The Aces are, of course, still without A’ja Wilson with an ankle injury and at first glance that may not appear to be a huge deal against the Wings. However, Dallas has done nothing but rest and prepare over the last week No Wings players made it to the All-Star Game and now they get a chance to play one of the league’s best team coming off what was probably a lot more restful week for the road team.
In short, the Wings are the play here. Heading into the All-Star Break over the last few weeks, we saw a different Wings team. They have some solid players on both ends of the court and Arike Ogunbowale is a star in the making. Combined with the size to match up with Lizzy Cambage and no Wilson and I’m kind of surprised this line is as high as it is. I’ll gladly take 12 with this Wings team coming off a week of rest against a team that could be more tired and out of sync after a week of partying.
My Pick: Wings ATS
Best Line Offered: Bookmaker