Jordan’s WNBA Picks 26-29-1
New York Liberty at Dallas Wings
The Liberty started to play pretty well heading into the All-Star Break and now it’s time to see if they can carry that over into the second half. Their first test after the break won’t be easy. Dallas has been crappy and playing all season with little regard for their opponent’s status in the league.
While Dallas has not been as successful in the win column, they have been covering some numbers ATS because of their intense defense and ability to slow teams down.
That could come into play early in this one because the Liberty have been known to get out and run earlier in games. If Dallas can slow down New York enough early in the game, I think the under has some value in the first quarter.
For starters, these two are the worst first-quarter offenses in the league. They average just 85 points per 100 possessions in the first quarters of their games this season. The Wings also play at the second-slowest first-quarter pace.
With a first-quarter total of 38, the under looks like a nice value to start this one off right. With the Liberty coming off the long All-Star layover, it might be a quarter or two before their offense gets into gear.
My Pick: UNDER 1Q
Best Line Offered: 5Dimes
Las Vegas Aces at LA Sparks
Another matchup that could be defensive-minded is the Aces and Sparks. Both teams will be fighting for byes in the playoffs and with this being their third game against one another this season, I could see defense win out.
A’ja Wilson is still out for the Aces, but the Sparks get some reinforcements on Thursday, as Candace Parker and Alexis Jones are cleared to return.
Wilson being out limits the Aces’ offense some and while the Sparks offense is helped by Parker returning, it still may be an ‘under’ play.
Vegas is a great defensive team and they have not missed much in that area with Wilson out. On the season, Vegas is allowing just 88.9 points per 100 possessions, which is best in the league.
LA has been getting better on the defensive end as well. Over their last five games, the Sparks have allowed just 93.6 points per 100 possessions, which is fourth-best among all teams during that stretch.
Considering the season series is tied right now and considering how close they are in the standings, I see these two teams buckling down in this game and trying to win it with defense. The atmosphere should be good and both teams should be well-rested, despite the Aces playing on Tuesday.
My Pick: UNDER
Best Line Offered: Pinnacle