Winnipeg As CFL Pick Against A Suspect Edmonton Defense

Winnipeg Blue Bombers

Ian Cameron

Wednesday, July 13, 2016 3:44 PM GMT

Read on as sports handicapper Ian Cameron provides a betting preview of Week 4 in the Canadian Football League.

Ottawa Redblacks vs. Toronto Argonauts
Ottawa remained undefeated after a 26-26 tie last week against Calgary. Toronto notched an impressive road win at BC. Ricky Ray and the Argos offense had their best performance of the season last week against a tough Lions defense and showed a strong balance between the pass and run. Ottawa’s offense remains extremely potent led by QB Trevor Harris and he has formed a dynamic duo with speedster RB Chris Williams. I would expect both teams to be able to put up their share of points. Toronto lost their only previous home game against Hamilton and I’m not convinced they will step up in the favorites role here.

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Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Montreal Alouettes
Montreal has plenty of question marks surrounding their offense heading into this game despite the fact they are coming off a bye week. Montreal has lost WR’s Kenny Stafford and S.J. Green to injury and Duron Carter may have to serve his 1 game suspension in this game which could leave the Alouettes decimated in terms of targets in the passing game. Montreal may also be forced to turn to Rakeem Cato at QB with Kevin Glenn suffered from an eye injury. Hamilton is off B2B losses at home which is rare for them. The Ticats have been plagued by turnovers, penalties and miscues in those two losses and QB Jeremiah Masoli had a horrendous game last week incurring 2 INT's and 3 lost fumbles in the loss to Winnipeg. That being said, Montreal is already battling the injury bug in a big way and it is something that Hamilton might be able to exploit here.

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BC Lions vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders
The BC Lions dropped out of the undefeated ranks in 25-14 loss at home to Toronto last week. The offense couldn’t get on track as QB Jonathon Jennings had a rough game and was replaced by Travis Lulay in the second half but it was too late. Toronto’s defense completely shut them down throughout. BC’s defense played a good game once again but got victimized by being out on the field too long. There is no QB Controversy in BC as Jennings has already been named the starter and he may get the chance to atone for the worst game of his career as Saskatchewan’s defense is battling injuries and also giving up big plays in bunches something that even for defensive guru Chris Jones, it will take some time to correct. Saskatchewan has gotten very solid play out of Darian Durant at QB who played alright in Week 1 and even better last week against Edmonton. Durant has completed 58-of-86 passes (67.4% completion rate) for 627 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. Durant threw for 317 yards and four TDs in Saskatchewan's 39-36 overtime loss last week to Edmonton. teams. BC is also 2-0 Under the total so far this season and that is an early season trend that has developed not by accident and there could be more value in the total here sitting at 50 to look at this game Under the total.

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CFL Week 4 - Play Of The Week

Edmonton Eskimos vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers
The Edmonton Eskimos defense has been exceptionally bad in the first two weeks of the season allowing 45 and 36 points respectively against Ottawa and Saskatchewan and while their potent offense bailed them out last week in their 39-36 win at home against Saskatchewan, the idea of laying more than a FG on the road with a defense that has struggled as much as Edmonton’s has in the opening couple weeks of the season is not something I wish to do. 

Winnipeg finally rebounded with a nice road win at Hamilton last week by a score of 28-24 after a pair of very poorly played defeats against Montreal and Calgary to open the season. The offense finally got out of their recent pattern of going ‘2 and out’ far too much as they sustained drives and put points on the board early in what was easily the best game so far for QB Drew Willy and the Blue Bombers offense. 

I think Winnipeg’s offense is capable of building on that strong effort last week especially against a suspect Edmonton defense. The Eskimos are already 0-2 ATS this season in large part due to their defensive woes and those may continue here. Laying points on the road with a bad defense is not the recipe for pointspread success in any football league and the same applies here making Winnipeg as a home underdog for betting odds of more than a FG worthy as betting pick and I’ll make that my CFL Week 4 Play Of The Week

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Free CFL Pick: Winnipeg +3.5 -109 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage