Winning Picks On Highly Expected Germany vs. Italy Euro 2016 Match

Martin Green

Friday, July 1, 2016 8:09 PM UTC

Friday, Jul. 1, 2016 8:09 PM UTC

Italy has been the real surprise package at Euro 2016, beating Belgium to top their group. Join us as we choose our soccer pick when this Italy confronts the best team in the world.

Germany vs. Italy
Italy has defied all their critics, but now they face their sternest test yet. Germany is world champions and have been in imperious so far in this tournament. They topped their group and then thrashed Slovakia to cruise into the quarter-finals. This is by far and away the toughest draw in the round, but that means it provides value for punters in soccer odds.


Germany is the most common soccer pick, best priced at 13/10 at Coral and at WilliamHill. That is a fantastic price on a side that won the 2014 World Cup and has long been considered one of the favourites for Euro 2016. But you cannot write Italy off. Everyone expected Spain to beat them, but Italy’s game plan was perfect and they prevailed. It went the same way against Belgium, the number two team in the world in FIFA’s rankings, as Italy stayed tight and solid at the back, held their shape, nicked a goal, withstood pressure and made sure of victory with a late second goal. Now nobody would be surprised if they did it against Germany too.

The Italians are best priced at 3/1 with PaddyPower and BoyleSports, and that is a tremendous price on a side that is playing some great football and has already beaten two heavily fancied teams at Euro 2016. The draw, meanwhile, is 2/1 with Bet365 and various others.

It really is difficult to call how this one will go, but if you had to choose it is hard to look past Germany. Yes, Italy has already caused two great upsets, but Germany is the best team in the world. They destroyed Brazil 7-1 at the World Cup and went on to beat Lionel Messi’s Argentina in the final. Since then – friendly defeats aside, and friendlies can be ignored as teams rest key players and those that play often don’t give 100% – nothing has happened to suggest they are not still the best in the business.

They are exceptionally strong defensively and the likes of Tomas Muller and Mesut Ozil are just getting started, while Mario Gomez has really found form up front, giving them a focal point in attack they have lacked since Miroslav Klose hung up his boots. They also have great options off the bench, with Mario Gotze, Lukas Podolski and Julian Draxler fighting for places, keeping people on their toes and giving them great depth.


Italy is a strong side with an excellent manager, but this may be one step too far. Teams could be accused of taking them lightly before, but now everyone knows what a threat they are and you can never accuse the Germans of complacency. They are both very tight at the back and it may come down to a moment of magic to decide this one. If you look at both teams, Germany has more creative wizards and this could prove the difference.


Final Analysis
It is likely to be a low-scoring game as Germany have yet to concede a single goal in four games at this tournament, and Italy have conceded just once in four matches, when they fielded a weakened side against the Republic of Ireland in their final group game, safe in the knowledge they had already won their group. The best bet then is under 2.5 goals, which is 4/9 with Bet365 and various others. Another good bet is both teams to score – no, which is 8/13 with BetVictor and PaddyPower.  

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Free Soccer Pick: under 2.5 goals -225 , both teams to score – no, which is -162
Best Line Offered: under 2.5 goals at Bet365, both teams to score – no, which is -162 at PaddyPower

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