Rafael Nadal (3) vs. Roger Federer (2)
Friday, July 12, London
Free Tennis Pick: Over
Recommended Sportsbook: Pinnacle
Rafael Nadal continued his quest for a third Wimbledon title on Wednesday with a 7-5, 6-2, 6-2 win over Sam Querrey at No.1 Court. The 33-year-old produced a near-flawless display to beat the last American standing in the men’s draw with 44 winners to just 12 unforced errors. Nadal missed the last three months of 2018 due to injury but has enjoyed tremendous success this year. In addition to his outstanding 37-5 record in 2019, the 18-time Grand Slam champion became the first player to qualify for the ATP Nitto Finals in November at the O2 Arena in London.
Nadal will next take on Roger Federer, who battled from a set down to beat Kei Nishikori in the quarterfinals on Wednesday. The eight-time Wimbledon champion has struggled with break point conversions throughout the year and the match against Nishikori was a perfect example of that. Despite winning 43.48% of the points played on Kei’s serve, Federer converted just four of his 14 break point opportunities. Nevertheless, the 37-year-old didn’t panic after losing the opening set and won three consecutive sets to reach the Wimbledon semifinals for the 13th time in his career.
This is one of the greatest rivalries of all time and these two players will face each other for the 40th time in their careers. Nadal leads 24-15 in their head-to-head but Federer won five of their last six official encounters on the ATP Tour.
Federer was ahead of Nadal on the tennis betting odds to lift the trophy before the tournament, but everything changed in the last 10 days. The Spaniard has played some of his best tennis ever on grass and is now the favorite to win this contest at -135 with 5Dimes. On the other hand, Federer lost a set against Nishikori in the previous round and always had a very difficult task against Nadal’s heavy cross court forehand.
There’s always been a lot of discussion about the surface speed and this year it’s hard not to talk about it. Most of the players mentioned that the courts are slower when compared to previous editions, which obviously benefits Nadal on this matchup. However, Federer is still a very dangerous player on this surface and it’s unlikely to see him losing in straight sets. Adding to this, these two played at least one tie break in all their previous three meetings in Wimbledon. With this in mind, our suggestion is for you to add the Over 40.5 games to your betting picks at -116 with Pinnacle as the best play for this contest.