Will Holly Holm Get Her Groove Back Vs. Bethe Correia?

holm correia ufc

Jason Lake

Tuesday, June 13, 2017 6:22 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 13, 2017 6:22 PM UTC

Holly Holm is 0-3 since upsetting Ronda Rousey almost two years ago, but she’s a big favorite on the UFC odds board for Saturday’s main event with Bethe Correia.

It seemed like a revelation at the time. Holly Holm, the former women’s boxing champion, destroyed Ronda Rousey (-1650) at UFC 193, handing Rousey her first defeat and claiming the UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship. Holm followed the Jackson Wink plan to a tee, landing punches and head kicks with surgical precision to earn the knockout early in the second round.

That was November 2015. Nothing has gone right for Holm since then; she lost the title to Miesha Tate (+215) via rear-naked choke, dropped a unanimous decision to Valentina Shevchenko (+145), and then lost her shot at the newly-minted Women’s Featherweight belt to Germaine de Randamie (-137). So is there any way we should have Holm in our UFC picks for Saturday’s Fight Night 111 main event with Bethe Correia (+450)?

Stand And Deliver

Well, this bout does seem tailor-made for Holm (10-3 lifetime, 3-3 UFC). They’ll be fighting in Singapore and the entire event is on UFC Fight Pass, so she’s not being counted on for a huge buy-rate. Holm is also returning to the more familiar Bantamweight division, and Correia (10-2-1 lifetime, 4-2-1 UFC) isn’t at the same level as the top women in her class. Her most recent outing was a majority draw against Marion Reneau (-125) in March. Holm easily defeated Reneau (+170) by unanimous decision in July 2015 to set up her title fight with Rousey.

The clash of styles favors Holm, too. Correia is a brawler who relies on volume more than power. The Brazilian eats almost as many strikes (4.08 per minute, according to FightMetric) as she delivers (4.74 per minute). Holm will have five rounds to pick the smaller Correia apart, without having to worry too much about getting taken to the mat.

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I 👏am👏everyone's👏highlight👏reel👏

But for the record, @HollyHolm beat my ass more in training than any other fighter ever.

— Julie Kedzie (@julesk_fighter) June 4, 2017

It’s possible we could be stepping in it again by recommending Holm, who turns 36 in October. However, even at -600, Holm looks like the right pick on the UFC odds board. We could go with the decision finish at -130 on the props market, but those extra “championship” rounds might be enough for Holm to get the KO. We’ll risk the chalk instead.

Free UFC Pick: Holm -569Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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