Where's Best Betting Value for UFC Fight Night 120?

ufc fight night 120

Andreas Hale

Thursday, November 9, 2017 2:15 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 9, 2017 2:15 PM UTC

After an eventful UFC 217, the Ultimate Fighting Championship doesn’t give you much room to breathe as the promotion will be in Norfolk, Va., on Saturday for UFC Fight Night 120.

Free UFC Pick: Lauzon +100Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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Saturday's UFC Fight Night 120 card in Norfolk, Va., is headlined by an intriguing lightweight showdown between Anthony Pettis and Dustin Poirier and also features several other interesting bouts with betting value. The main event is truly a toss up between two fighters many expected would meet for UFC gold at some point in their respective careers. Although this doesn’t have a title on the line, it certainly has a significant bearing on the lightweight division.

The line is a narrow one with Pettis at a -120 favorite while Poirier sitting at a +100 underdog. Both fighters are the epitome of potential but have hit rough patches. Poirier was primed to make a run though the lightweight division until he was stopped in the first round by Michael Johnson last September. And right when he appeared to get back on track, an illegal knee from Eddie Alvarez put his run on pause.

As for Pettis, his rise and fall have been a bit more pronounced as the former lightweight champion has gone 2-4 in his last six fights, including a unanimous decision loss to Rafael dos Anjos when he lost the title. He has tried his hand at a lower weight class but struggled mightily and was wrecked by Max Holloway. His return to lightweight was successful when he scored a unanimous decision over Jim Miller back in July. But there are certainly more questions than answers.

I’d advise to stay away from this one because of the unpredictability of it all. Pettis has always had the higher upside. But his valleys are just as pronounced as his peaks. Poirier has been steady but hasn’t faced the same opposition as Pettis. If I had a free bet, I’d have to go with Poirier because of the momentum he carries heading into this fight and the uncertainty of Pettis.

The heavyweight showdown between Andrei Arlovski and Junior Albini is an interesting one from a betting perspective. Arlovski has lost five in a row and been stopped in four of those fights. Meanwhile, Albini has won 10 fights in a row, including a knockout in his UFC debut. Arlovski is a significant underdog at +280 while Albini is a -340 favorite. Albini should win this fight, but with such a steep line you may not want to put enough into it to make it a valuable return. Something tells me that this fight will go 'over' 1 1/2 rounds, which currently sits at +140. Arlovski did go the distance with Marcin Tybura in his last fight and isn’t facing a knockout artist like Francis Ngannou, Alistair Overeem or Stipe Miocic. That doesn’t mean he won’t get knocked out, it just means that these two stand a very good chance of lasting 7.5 minutes. I like the 'over' here.

Joe Lauzon and Clay Guida will meet for the first time and that is certainly one of those fights where you truly believe that these two had to have fought before. Unfortunately, they never had the opportunity. Lauzon is coming off a majority decision loss to Stevie Ray, while Guida made his successful return to lightweight after some trying times as a featherweight. This is another close fight to peg, but the money has been trending in favor of Guida who opened at +105 and is now a -120 favorite. Lauzon, on the other hand, went from a -125 favorite to a +100. But I like Lauzon here and his ability to strike along with an effective ground game. Guida has been known to ground his opponents and keep them there. But he’s not as explosive as he once was and could find himself on the wrong side of a decision.

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