West Ham United +421 To Upset Manchester City In Premier League

Nikki Adams

Saturday, January 23, 2016 12:55 PM GMT

Saturday, Jan. 23, 2016 12:55 PM GMT

West Ham United face a stiff challenge in Manchester City at the weekend. Can they upset the title faves? Here’s a soccer betting analysis along with our choice soccer pick.

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Free Premier League Pick: West Ham United +421
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

 

West Ham United Underestimated?
The Hammers will be looking to bounce back into winning form at Upton Park when they host title favorites Manchester City. On match day 22, the Hammers suffered a setback at St. James Park, losing 2-1 to Newcastle United. The loss marked their first loss since the Spurs beat them 4-1 on November 22. That’s a run of nine games undefeated across all competitions, comprised of five consecutive draws before reeling off four straight wins ahead of the last lap around the league.

Earlier in the season, the Hammers orchestrated several eyebrow raising upsets. They opened their Premier League campaign with a 2-0 win over Arsenal at the Emirates. Several weeks later they stunned Liverpool at Anfield 3-0 and then traipsed into the Etihad to take all three points behind a 2-1 win. The Hammers also beat defending champions Cheslea and Southampton at Upton Park (both by a 2-1 score line) and swept the series with Liverpool with a 2-0 win at Upton Park on match day 20.

Ahead of match day 23 the Hammers are sat in sixth place in the table, down from a previous rank of 5 following the defeat to Newcastle United. Overall, they sport a 9-8-5 record on the season and 35 points – nine points adrift of the league-leading tandem of Arsenal and Leicester City. This includes a 4-4-2 mark at home and a 5-4-3 mark on the road.

On the form table, West Ham United are fourth with a 3-2-1 mark in their last six games. Importantly, they are 2-1-0 at home over the course of this run of form.

Despite these many positives for the Hammers in their first year with Slavan Bilic at the helm, odds makers are implacable about the Hammers and their chances of gaining a positive result look grim: The Hammers are matched as the staggering +400-ish underdogs across sports betting platforms. Heck, even the draw is trading large, anywhere from +260 at BetOnline and William Hill to +311 at 5Dimes.

Pinnacle Sports opened with Premier League odds at a tentative +408 before moving to +418. 5Dimes is offering a West Ham win at a high of +421 while Bet365, Bookmaker, BetCRIS, amongst several others, are exactly on +400 soccer odds for the home win.

It’s rather surprising that the market would take such a dim view of the Hammers. Consider they’ve already beaten Man City this season as well as other standout teams in England’s top flight. Clearly, this is a dangerous team that plays up to its opponents and these soccer odds do them no justice whatsoever.

Of course, it’s not for us to criticise market sense but what we can do is say we’re not really in accord. Particularly when looking at the opposite side of the coin: a highly fancied Manchester City that’s hardly appealing as the runaway road favorite.

 

Highly-fancied Manchester City Overrated?
Manchester City are sat third in the table with a 13-4-5 record and 43 points. They are just a point behind the league-leading tandem of Arsenal and Leicester City, and for the time being they remain the title favorites with most sports betting shops.

By that token, we can understand why Manchester City would enter this matchup as the favorite on the soccer odds board: most sportsbooks are riding on -140 soccer odds for a Manchester City win while The Greek is riding on a high of -161 for a Manchester City win. Such is the confidence in the market where the Sky Blues are concerned.

Yet, Manchester City’s road record this season is barely a ringing endorsement of these overrated soccer odds. The Citizens are 4-3-3 on the away this season, which includes scoring ten goals and conceding nine.  In their last six road games they’ve gone 1-3-2 – the losses coming to Stoke and Arsenal.

Not to harp on this again, but, lest everyone’s forgotten, they did lose to Slavan Bilic’s Hammers at the Etihad as well.

 

Soccer Betting Verdict
At face value, the market outlook makes sense. After all, Manchester City are expected to win the title this season. But expectations and reality are two different things. Manchester City aren’t even at the top of the table, let alone a shoe in for the title, and currently six teams have a reasonable shot at the title, of which the Hammers actually make up one – albeit the team with the longest shot.

Point is: it would be foolhardy to ignore the potential threat West Ham United pose in this game. They’ve stared down heavyweights successfully this season so they’ll fancy their chances even if the market doesn’t. The hosts will have no shortage of confidence having already beaten Man City and that makes them an appealing bet at their ridiculously large soccer odds.

You can take the Hammers at their attractive +421 soccer odds at 5Dimes to win outright, or dabble in double chance betting by taking the Hammers to win or draw at a reduced+115 soccer odds at Bet365. For those that prefer the cushy safety provided by the draw no bet, West Ham are still a tasty +250 soccer pick to consider.

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