Werdum Over Velasquez? We Find a Few UFC 188 Odds That are Too Good to Pass Up

Swinging Johnson

Friday, June 12, 2015 6:20 PM GMT

Only one man has been able to defeat Cain Velasquez and the champ avenged that loss with a pair of victories over his nemesis Junior dos Santos. How will Fabricio Werdum attack in this heavyweight title tilt and is he a feasible bet in our UFC picks?

Ring Rust
Champion Cain Velasquez’s cardio and stamina is legendary which creates a problem for any heavyweight who opposes him but Fabricio Werdum may have a distinct advantage headed into this heavyweight championship fight. Velasquez has not fought in nearly two years and the soon to be 33-year-old heavyweight king has never experienced this much time away from the Octagon since he turned pro back in ’06.

The challenger understands very well how Velasquez can wear down opponents with only two of the champion’s opponents having gone the distance. Junior dos Santos went five grueling rounds in the second of three tangos with Velasquez and for those that witnessed that beating it might be said that dos Santos would have been better off being KO’ed in the early rounds as he was no match for a relentless Velasquez who was determined to reclaim his heavyweight belt and prove to dos Santos that their first meeting was a fluke.

Werdum has gone the distance on nine occasions registering a 4-4-1 record in those bouts but only one of those matches was at the championship distance of five rounds. That fight proved to be successful for Werdum as it was the title eliminator battle with Travis Browne which set up his last fight with Mark Hunt for the UFC Interim Heavyweight Championship. The question is how fit is Velasquez and will this long layoff prove to be the opening Werdum can exploit as the fight wears on? Or perhaps Velasquez’s time off will manifest in a slow start that Werdum can use to punish the champion in the opening rounds leading to an early knockout or submission? This is uncharted waters for the champion and Werdum could land a stunning upset either way and cash for his backers that include him in their UFC picks.

 

Werdum’s Biggest Weapon
As a Muay Thai black belt with hurricane-force kicks who stands 6’4” and possesses enormous power in both hands Werdum is lethal standing up but against his opponent at UFC 188 that arsenal may very well be rendered impotent as Velasquez is the undisputed King of the KO and Werdum would be wise to avoid standing and trading. But what Werdum does best occurs when the fight hits the mat as he is an elite level BJJ practitioner and submission wrestling specialist earning more international gold than Fort Knox. Nevertheless, Velasquez is a world class wrestler and owns almost a 3:1 advantage in takedowns over Werdum but when Velasquez has Werdum on the canvas it could spell doom for the champ as the challenger is a boa constrictor in that realm. Werdum has nine submissions in his 19 victories and can exploit the slightest weakness into a stunning tap-out.

Though the UFC odds have installed Velasquez as a prohibitive 1-5 favorite there could be an opportunity for all you longshot punters out there with a bet on the underdog at around +380 at BetDSI. In addition, if you want to get even more specific and you believe the ring-rusty Velasquez will succumb to Werdum’s All-World submission skills then you may want to peruse the UFC proposition betting odds. Currently you will find big prices to be paid if you include in your UFC picks the following props:

Werdum wins inside the distance: +650 offered by SportsInteraction

Werdum wins by submission: +1175 where the best line can be found at 5Dimes

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