Well-Crafted MLS Pick Almost Guarentees a Payout in Sunday's Orlando City-DC United Match

Kevin Stott

Friday, June 12, 2015 3:08 PM GMT

Friday, Jun. 12, 2015 3:08 PM GMT

The Lions are averaging 37,420 fans a game—you know the visitors will truly be up against a 12th man in Florida. But is that raucous support and a 4-5-5 overall record enough to pick Orlando City in this particular spot?

Odds Overview
DC United at Orlando City [Monday 00:00] (MLS Live, Fox Sports 1 USA, Fox Sports GO, Fox Deportes (USA); EuroSport Deutschland (GER): 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT): Eastern Conference leaders DC United (8-4-4, 20 GF-15 GA) head down the Atlantic Coast to the Sunshine State to face Kaka and first-year and 5th-place Orlando City SC (4-5-5, 19 GF-19 GA) on Sunday night in what could be a game that tightens up the table in the conference, with DCU holding a robust 7-point lead (28-21 points) over the 2nd-place New England Revolution. Odds makers have made host Orlando City +100 (Even money) favorites here over visiting DC United (+300) with the Draw priced at +250 (BetVictor). The Total Goals in this Sunday match has been set at 2½, with the vigorish priced at -110 for both prospective Over and Under (William Hill). Some Props wagers for this fixture from central Florida: Both Teams To Score: ‘Yes’ -137, ‘No’ +105 (Ladbrokes); To Win To Nil: Orlando City +260, DC United +700 (Coral); and, Draw No Bet: Orlando City -225, DC United +180 (BetVictor).

 

DC United
Eastern Conference leaders DC United (2-1-3 Away, 4 GF-6 GA) have played extremely low-scoring games so far on the Road, as the 10 goals in 6 games (1.66 gpg average) reveals, and Head Coach Ben Olsen likes it that way as this team’s Defense (15 Goals Allowed) and stellar Goalkeeper Bill Hamid are a big part of the reason the Black-and-Red comfortably sit 7 points clear on top of the Eastern Conference table heading in here. DC United is led on the attack by Jairo Arrieta (5 goals), Chris Rolfe (4 goals), Chris Pontius (2 goals), Perry Kitchen (2 goals), Sean Franklin (1 goal), Bobby Boswell (1 goal), Luis Silva (1 goal), Fabián Espíndola (1 goal), Steve Birnbaum (1 goal), Kofi Opare (1 goal) and Conor Doyle (1 goal). In their last game on Saturday (June 6), DC United lost 2-1 to Toronto FC at RFK to snap a 20-game Home Unbeaten Streak as Sebastian Giovinco scored twice for the visitors. Birnbaum had the lone goal for DC United (Highest soccer odds, 6/1 to win MLS Cup, bet365).

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Orlando City SC
Despite the Big Love that Orlando City (1-3-3 at Home, 9 GF-9 GA) has seen at the turnstiles in terms of averaging the highest attendance in its first season in the MLS—plans for a new stadium in O-Town are rumored to be coming in the Near Future—the Lions and 33-year-old Brazilian Designated Player Kaká (6 goals) still only have 1 win here at Home as we near the first day of Summer. So, talking about any Home-pitch Advantage or expecting the expansion Lions to win at Home as a bettor is all just Wishful Thinking for now. However, the purple uniforms look just great. In its last game, in Chicago on Saturday, Orlando City (Highest odds 20/1 to win MLS Cup, Betfair Sportsbook) rallied for an impressive 3-2 win over the Fire at Toyota Park in Bridgeview as Cyle Larin (5 goals) scored the 2nd Half equalizer with 8 minutes to go for the Lions before Fire Brazilian Defender Adaílton had his second own Goal of the game—an MLS first—to give visiting Orlando City and GK Donovan Ricketts (21 Saves, 14 Goals Conceded) the quirky 3-2 win and the the 3 points. So, this new Orlando City team got its only Eastern Conference in its history because an opposing Defender accidentally put the ball in his own net twice in one game. Poor Adaílton. These things will happen.

 

Current Form, Series Trends, Conclusions
With Orlando City being a first-year MLS Expansion team, there isn’t a rich series history yet between these two clubs, with the two clubs having only played twice, both times this season, with DC United winning 2-1 at Home in the last meeting (May 13) as well as the first meeting ever between these two teams (April 3) here at the Citrus Bowl in Orlando, 1-0. So, the big underdog and the Eastern Conference’s first-place team, DC United (Current Form: LDLWWL), comes in here as high as +400 underdogs in some places (Coral), and this game will be much more important for the hosts Orlando City (Current Form: DLWDDW) than it will be the team with the 7-point lead (28-21) over the 2nd-place club in the conference (New England Revolution), almost the perfect storm for a low-scoring 0-0 or 1-1 Draw it seems.

Of note, the Both Teams To Score (Yes) is 4 of L5 in DC United games and the L3 DCU games have gone Over the Total, and, with the weather warm in the last weekend of Spring, is the Over the logical play here? Not really, with the situation, the site, the GKs (Hamid and Ricketts) and the game meaning so much to the hosts, who still have much to prove despite the large crowds and talk of a new stadium. One Win at Home in mid-June speaks volumes, so it may be worth it for value players to take a shot on DC United (2-0-0 lifetime vs. Orlando City) on the To Win To Nil line at soccer odds of +700. This game should be played nervously, with minimal quality shots (under 8) on target with both teams playing more not to Lose rather than to Win and with DC United being that aforementioned Road Under (1.66 gpg) team, the Under seems like the logical approach here at Disney World on Sunday.

Predicted Final Score: Orlando City 1 DC United 1

MLS Soccer Pick: Draw +250 (Best odds, BetVictor), Draw No Bet DC United +225 (Best odds, BetVictor), Under 2½ -102 (Best Odds, BetVictor)

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