Jordan’s WNBA Picks: 40-39-2
Seattle Storm at Washington Mystics
Wednesday, 8:00 PM
Free WNBA Pick: Over 1H
Best Line Offered: BetOnline
This one is a tough one to handicap, because while there does appear to be some value in the Storm right now, it all depends on the health of the Mystics, who are pretty banged up right now.
Washington will be without Kristi Toliver tonight, which is a huge loss and probably their second most important player behind Elena Delle Donne. We also don’t know the status of Ariel Atkins, who left their last game and is questionable for Wednesday. Add in Tianna Hawkins being questionable as well and you have two starters and one very good role player who are either out or potentially out for the Mystics.
That’s a lot of firepower and with Toliver being out already, I think it’s enough to take the points with the Storm.
However, my better play on this one is the first half. The Mystics’ offense does take a slight hit without Tolliver and potentially without Atkins as well. However, the Storm defense has been getting a little worse with each passing game, especially when they play in the first halves of their road games.
Seattle allows 101.6 points per 100 possessions in the first halves of their road games this season, while playing at a pace above 97 possessions per 40 minutes. If you look at just Seattle’s last five games, (three road, two home) they are allowing 114.2 points per 100 possessions in the first half.
Connecticut Sun at Phoenix Mercury
Wednesday, 10:00 PM
Free WNBA Pick: Over 1H and Game
Best Line Offered: Pinnacle
This game will of course be without Brittany Griner as she starts the first game of a three-game suspension Wednesday. Also, without Diana Taurasi and this Mercury team might struggle tonight. However, the Sun defense has been wearing down lately as we approach the end of a long W season, so this game is also rip for some over plays.
Without Griner, this Mercury team will be forced to play fast and their defense will suffer greatly without Griner on the floor to stop Jonquel Jones.
The Mercury were already not playing great defense lately either. They have allowed 106.4 points per 100 possessions over their last five game and the Sun haven’t been much better, allowing 100.7 points per 100 possessions in their last five.
Connecticut has also been pushing the pace over their last five games, especially in the first two quarters. They play at a pace above 100 in those last five first halves, with a defensive rating of 102.4, and an offensive rating above 100.
I believe the loss of Griner will hurt much more defensively for the Mercury than offensively. I’m pretty sure of that. Without their star center, the Mercury will be forced to play smaller and quicker, which plays right into Connecticut’s hands. However, with the way the Sun are playing defense, I expect a lot of scoring early and often in this one.