Ways To Cash When Betting Euro 2016 Poland vs. Portugal Fixture

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, June 28, 2016 4:20 PM GMT

Tuesday, Jun. 28, 2016 4:20 PM GMT

The Quarterfinal Round of the UEFA EURO 2016 kicks off at Stade Vélodrome with Portugal meeting Poland. Let’s take a look at both sides and come up with a hopefully logical picks.

Poland vs. Portugal
The first Quarterfinal match of the UEFA EURO 2016 sees Robert Lewandowski and Poland locking horns with Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal at the Stade Vélodrome in Marseille on Thursday with the winner moving on to play the winner of the Friday’s Wales-Belgium Quarterfinal. Oddsmakers made Portugal +125 favorites with underdog Poland priced at +300 and a Draw at +300 in the Three-Way (Winner) marketplace at Bet365 with the Total (Goals) set at 2 at most sportsbooks with the Under juiced at -135 at NetBet. The First Half soccer Odds see a Draw as the favorite at -110, Portugal priced at +200 and Poland at +350 at Bet365.

Some Props wagers for this Euro 2016 game: Both Teams To Score: ‘Yes’ +120, ‘No’ -162 at Bet365; Draw No Bet: Portugal -190, Poland +184 at Marathon; Correct Score: Portugal 1-0 +500 at Boylesports, Poland 1-0, +800 at BetVictor, 0-0, +590 at Marathon, Portugal 2-0, 9/1 at Boylesports, Poland 2-0, 19/1 at BetVictor; To Qualify: Portugal -183, Poland +155 at Marathon; and, Total Corners: 9½ Over -137, Under +100 at Bet365.

 

Poland
Poland (20/1 to win EURO 2016, at PaddyPower) and Head Coach Adam Nawalka still have received little R-E-S-P-E-C-T from the public and maybe even a bit so with the Oddsmakers but that’s understood with the vast majority of the Polish opponents being sides that have larger fan bases and who would no doubt be receiving more money at the betting windows. With Captain Robert Lewandowski (Fußball-Club Bayern München), GK Wojciech Szczesny (Arsenal), DF Lukasz Piszczek (Borussia Dortmund), Jakub Blaszczykowski (Borussia Dortmund, 2 goals) and Striker Arkadiusz Milik (Ajax), the Bialo-czerwoni (The White and Reds) have a solid core unit and Poland (LDWDWD) went 2-1-0 in Group Stage play, with Szczesny and the Polish Defense allowing 0 (as in no) goals and scoring just 2 goals to finish second in Group C behind World Cup champions Germany.

In its dramatic Penalty Kick Shootout (6-5) Round of 16 win over Switzerland in Saint-Étienne on Saturday (June 25), Poland (FIFA Rank #28) had a Starting XI of: GK Wojciech Szczesny, D Michal Pazdan, Kamil Gill, Artur Jedrzejczyk and Lukasz Piszczek; Krzysztof Maczynski, Grzegorz Krychowiak, Kamil Grosicki; Jakub Blaszczykowski and Robert Lewandowski up top at Striker. In a game which is a virtual toss-up, fading over-rated Portugal (FIFA #8) right now and seeking the perceived value seems wise.

 

Portugal
Portugal (7/1 to win EURO 2016, at PaddyPower) and Head Coach Fernando Santos seem really lucky to be in this spot in the EURO, and just as lucky to get Poland in this Round of 8, the tournament’s second biggest longshot heading into this Quarterfinal round which starts on Thursday and runs through Sunday. In the Round of 16 and first match of its Knockout Phase here, Portugal (LWDDDW) needed an Extra Time goal (117’) from Ricardo Quaresma (Besiktas) to oust upstart Croatia, 1-0 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis in Lens on June 25.

In that win, A Selecção had a Starting XI of GK Rui Patrício; talented Defenders José Fonte, Pepe, Raphael Guerreiro and Cedric Soares; William Carvalho, Adrien Silva, André Gomez, João Mário, Cristiano Ronaldo and Nani. Throughout this EURO 2016, Portugal has had trouble scoring goals as well as actually winning matches and A Selecção scored just 4 goals in 4 games with all 4 in Group F play (POR 1-1 ISL, POR 0-0 AUS, POR 3-3 HUN) and 3 of them in one game.

Portugal also had no goals in 90 minutes of play in its Round of 16 match against Croatia (0-0) it won 1-0 in added Extra Time. So, Portugal hasn’t exactly looked great in its 4 matches here and ranked #8 by FIFA, is extremely overrated. Star winger Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) has scored just 2 goals in 4 games and this team can rightfully be accused of being one-dimensional with everything in the attack seemingly having to go through Ronaldo (Real Madrid). This team is thinking way too much and it shows and this could be yet another case of that proverbial Pressure ending up making a Coal and not a Diamond.

 

Series History, Marseille Weather Forecast, Conclusions and Picks
Lifetime, Portugal is 4-3-3 (13 GF-9 GA) against Poland and 2-1-1 (6 GF-5 GA) in EURO play, but all Qualifiers. The last time these two met was in 2012 in a Friendly, which ended 0-0, a type of match which could evolve here with minimal quality shots on target and both Defense looking to each other team’s big guns—Ronaldo (+137 Anytime Goalscorer, at Ladbrokes) for Portugal and Lewandowski (+250 Anytime Goalscorer, at Ladbrokes). And a Semifinal berth is also at stake.

The best candidates for goals outside of CR7 for the Portuguese are Nani (Anytime Goalscorer +400, at PaddyPower), Eder (Anytime Goalscorer +350, at Betfred), Ricardo Quaresma (Anytime Goalscorer +450, at PaddyPower) and Arkadiusz Milik (Anytime Goalscorer +450, at PaddyPower), Mariusz Stepinski (Anytime Goalscorer +500, at PaddyPower) and Jakub Blaszczykowski (Anytime Goalscorer +650, at StanJames) for the Poles. This figures to be a chess match in which Luck may play a part and is a tough soccer pick from both the Side standpoint—although there is perceived value with Poland—and with the Total at 2. If you can find a 2½, best to take the Under here (2½ -190, st Marathon) and pay the vigorish as this could be another slog and all Portugal games have seem to played to a certain, almost boring template, with a Draw after 90 minutes a strong possibility and a Penalty Kick Shoot also a decent possibility. The Weather Forecast (TWC) for Marseille on Thursday calls for a Mostly Clear Sky, a Low of 69° (Fahrenheit) with W Winds shifting to N at 10-15 mph.

In the end, this handicap isn’t the strongest suggestion, but the value here seems to be with the underdog Polish side and Portugal will come in a little scared and frustrated after having to jump through hoops and ladders just to get here. The Under (at 2½) seems like the best look, with Poland in the Draw No Bet marketplace having some perceived value also in a match which will likely come down to the smallest of things and the tiniest of margins. This could 90 minutes and even Extra Time deadlocked, but taking a shot at Poland in this Szczesny and Poland in this opening Quarterfinal spot as an underdog may be worthwhile. A tough call.

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PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Poland 1 Portugal 0
Free Soccer Picks: Under 2½ -190, Poland Draw No Bet +178, Poland To Qualify +155 
Best Line Offered: at Marathon

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