Wales The Best Value Bet In Euro 2016 Semifinals Match vs. Portugal

Kevin Stott

Monday, July 4, 2016 12:28 PM UTC

Monday, Jul. 4, 2016 12:28 PM UTC

Is backing Portugal the automatic lean? Let’s look at the highest futures book odds and analyze who will move on to the Finals on the prestigious tournament.

Portugal vs. Wales 
The first of the two Semifinals in the 2016 UEFA European Championship (2016 EURO) will take place on Wednesday at Stade de Lyon in Lyon, France with Gareth Bale and upstart Wales playing Cristiano Ronaldo and favorite Portugal for a trip to the championship match. Oddsmakers have made Portugal +114 favorites with Wales priced at +320 and a Draw at a low +210 (at Bet365), a byproduct of Portugal failing to win an EURO 2016 in 9 minutes to date. The Total (Goals) here is set at 2 with the Underpriced at -137 (Over +102, at NetBet) while the First Half odds see the Draw as the likeliest possibility with -110 odds, Portugal at +187 and Wales priced at +375. Some Props wagers: Both Teams To Score: ‘Yes’ -116, ‘No’ -144 (Marathon); Draw No Bet: Portugal -250, Wales +175; Correct Score: 0-0, +620, Portugal 1-0, 5/1, Wales 1-0, +850; Clean Sheet: Portugal +110, Wales +225 (at PaddyPower); and (Will There Be) Extra Time?: No -275, Yes +210.


Absence of Dragons Aaron Ramsey Could Hurt Welsh Against Ronaldo, Portugal
One of the big things to know from a Soccer Odds handicapping perspective here is that Wales will be without the services of Aaron Ramsey (Arsenal) who will miss the match due to Yellow Card accumulation, after picking up his second Yellow in the 2nd Half of the Dragons surprise 3-1 upset over Belgium on Friday in the Quarterfinals. With Midfielder Ramsey out, expect either Andy King (Anytime Goalscorer +900, Paddy Power) or Jonny Williams (Anytime Goalscorer +900 at PaddyPower) to start in his spot. And Dragons LB Ben Davies (Tottenham Hotspur) will also miss the Semifinals match for Yellow Card accumulation after getting his second booking in the Welsh win over the Red Devils.

Ramsey assisted on goals by Ashley Williams (Anytime Goalscorer 25/1 at Bwin)—the game’s equalizer—as well as on a beautiful goal to Hal Robson-Kanu (Anytime Goalscorer +450, Betfred), but a caution in the 74th minute for handling the ball will have the 25-year-old native of Caerphilly out missing the biggest match in his country Wales’ (9/1 to win EURO 2016 at StanJames) history. But even with Ramsey and Davies out, Portugal (WDDDWD) has been nothing to write home about in the tournament, failing to win a match in the 90 minutes of play in five tries in both the Group (POR 1-1 ISL, POR 0-0 AUT, POR 3-3 HUN) and Knockout Stages (POR 1-0 CRO in ET and POL 1-1 POR, POR 5-3 in PK SO) while Bale (Anytime Goalscorer +235, at 888Sport) and Wales (LWLWWW) have already won four times (in 90 minutes) heading in here (2-1 over Slovakia, 3-0 over Russia in Group Stage; 1-0 over Northern Ireland, 3-1 over Belgium in Knockout Stage). 

So the big question here is can Portugal finally play a fluid game on Offense. And with its track record through these first five EURO matches and Wales seeming like a team of destiny with Bale (EURO 2016 Top Goalscorer +750, at Betway) one of the best two players in the tournament, this one again seems too close to call and may end up requiring Extra Time. The absence of Ramsey will definitely hurt Wales some here, but luckily for the Dragons, they are on the side of the Bracket which didn’t draw the EURO 2016 hosts (France) or the defending World Cup champions (Germany), so all is still well in Cardiff for now.

This soccer pick may all come down to the play of the Goalkeepers, Portugal’s Rui Patrício (Sporting Clube de Portugal) and Wales’ Wayne Hennessey (Crystal Palace) and a lucky bounce or maybe a questionable call from a Referee. Slightest of leans to Bale and Wales here as it at least the Dragons have a taste of winning in Regulation in their mouth this deep in the tournament while Portugal and CR7 (Anytime Goalscorer +147, at 888Sport) seem to be living a somewhat charmed life and are maybe a little lucky to actually be at this point.

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Free Soccer Pick: Portugal 1 Wales 1, Draw +225, Wales Qualifying to Final 
Best Line Offered: at SportsInteraction


Highest Odds to Win Euro 2016
Germany +184 (at 888Sport)
France +200 (at Coral)
Portugal +360 (at Bwin)
Wales +900 (at 10Red)


Name the Finalists
Germany-Portugal +200 (at Betway)
France-Portugal +200 (at Bwin)
Germany-Wales +400 (at Betway)
France-Wales +450 (at Coral)

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