Villa vs. Manchester United Safe Bet 'Over 2.5' at Villa Park

Nikki Adams

Friday, August 14, 2015 11:39 AM GMT

Friday, Aug. 14, 2015 11:39 AM GMT

A rare Friday billing features on the Premier League betting menu when Aston Villa host Manchester United in the 2nd round of the 2015-16 top-flight season. Here’s our analysis with soccer picks.

Man United Trek to Villa Park
Louis Van Gaal and his Red Devils hit the road on match day 2 of Premier League, trekking to Villa Park for an exceptional Friday night clash, accommodating police request to have the game rescheduled because an English Defence League (EDL) march is set to take place in Walsall on Saturday afternoon. Five days later, Manchester United have a date with Club Brugge on Tuesday, a Champions League playoff game at the Old Trafford.

Manchester United’s season got off the mark with a 1-0 win over Tottenham, but they were spectacularly underwhelming in the victory. Had it not been for Kyle Walker’s own goal that secured all three points for Louis Van Gaal’s lads to kick start their campaign positively, the game would have ended scoreless most likely. Few scoring chances were created on both sides of the field and Walkers’ own goal became the first-time in history that an own goal was the opening goal of a new Premier League season.

By all accounts, Manchester United looked pedestrian but, then again, neither did Tottenham do anything really to try and take the win at the Old Trafford. It’s the definition of winning ugly. That said, soccer bettors that cashed on a Man U win at -163 soccer odds aren’t complaining.

 

Aston Villa Winning Start
Aston Villa enjoyed a winning start on the season when they beat promoted AFC Bournemouth 1-0, coming through as the severe +360 underdogs on the away. According to the Premier League odds, it constitutes an upset over the hosts, who were trading rather advantageously at -120 soccer odds in their Premier League debut. In reality, though, nobody is exactly shocked by the outcome. The Cherries are debutants after all.

Aston Villa showed resoluteness in the game despite an enthusiastic and up-tempo start by the Cherries, who enjoyed wave upon wave of chances to score that went begging in the first half. The second half, Tim Sherwood’s lads played a lot better and substitute Rudy Gestede scored the winner in the 72nd minute.

 

Aston Villa vs. Manchester United Match Betting Markets & Tips
The Red Devils present a much tougher challenge than the Cherries and Aston Villa will need to get off to a much quicker start if they hope to enjoy a positive result at Villa Park, marking their first home game this season. As it is, however, Villa are the absurd +450 underdogs on the Premier League odds board. So not much confidence in the home win, you could say.

Still, that price tag is rather tempting, isn’t it? Consider it’s a home game, on a Friday night following a bright start to the campaign. Villa Park is sure to be hopping, which might be a catalyst to a spectacular performance by Aston Villa before its fans.

Before one gets carried away with such a brash soccer pick it’s worth mentioning that Villa haven’t beaten Man U in their last 11 meetings, with their last victory coming at the Old Trafford in 2009. It’s also crouching on 16 years since Villa won at home to Man U. Still feeling brash?

Their best performance was a 1-1 draw last season at Villa Park, but Tim Sherwood wasn’t the coach then. A draw is trading at +280 soccer odds or an Aston Villa win or draw is trading at +115 at Bet365.

Predictably, Manchester United are the favorites at -138 soccer odds at Bet365 to win outright at Villa Park. It’s also the consensus soccer pick in most soccer betting circles.

On the strength of last week’s performance, which – let’s face it – was down to luck, we’re loathe to buy into Man U at -138. That’s just too high of a price for the win on the away by a team that left much to be desired in round 1. Of course, that could be down to nerves, new season jitters and new players finding their rhythm alongside the Red Devils regulars.  

This doesn’t mean we’re against a Man U win at Villa Park. Save for a 1-1 draw at Villa Park in December last year, the Red Devils have had Villa’s number both home and away. Looking at just the last six meetings, they’ve outscored them 17-5. That neatly brings us to our value soccer pick for this game. Although a Man U win is the likeliest outcome in this game, we’re of the opinion that the value soccer pick is the Over 2.5 goals at +110 at Bet365.

Soccer Picks: Over 2.5 goals at +110

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2864507, "sportsbooksIds":[43], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here