The UFC odds have been moving toward Frankie Edgar for Saturday's big fight with Jose Aldo. It's still a close call, though. The total for rounds is equally as tight.
Frankie Edgar vs Jose Aldo
Just another day at the office for Dana White. Saturday's massive UFC 200 card got taken down a notch when Jon “Bones” Jones tested positive for a banned substance; what that substance hadn't been revealed as we go to press, but Jones was pulled from the card on Wednesday, so there will be no Light Heavyweight title unification match with Daniel Cormier.
Good thing there are so many other quality fights on Saturday's card. Let's continue our trip through the UFC 200 props market with a look at the Interim Featherweight title bout between Jose Aldo and Frankie Edgar. This is a fairly even matchup on paper; Edgar has moved to –120 on the UFC odds board after opening at +105. Will they go the full five rounds, as Featherweights often do? That's another close call. The over/under is pegged at 4.5 rounds, with OVER the slight favorite at –120.
Going 25 minutes used to be de rigueur for Aldo (25-2 lifetime, 7-1 UFC). The former champion had seven successful title defenses in the Octagon, five of them unanimous decisions, before Conor McGregor (–110) knocked him out in 13 seconds last December. McGregor is obviously a very special case.
Edgar (20-4-1 lifetime, 14-4-1 UFC) has some of McGregor's power. He knocked out Gray Maynard (–135) in his second – and last – successful defense of the Lightweight title. Since moving down to Featherweight, Edgar has earned victories by TKO over B.J. Penn (+270) and KO over Chad Mendes (+105). The bulk of his wins as a Lightweight were by decision or submission; Edgar's power manifests itself more at 145 pounds.
It's Business Time
Speaking of submissions, Edgar also took down Cub Swanson (+125) with a neck crank two years ago at Fight Night 57. That's three wins out of five via stoppage as a Featherweight. However, Edgar also has one loss on his record. It was by unanimous decision, and it was against the man he'll face this Saturday. Aldo (–190) staved off a late challenge from Edgar to hang onto his title at UFC 156.
Saturday's fight is for the Interim belt, so the dynamic will be a little different this time around. We're still going to recommend the OVER for your UFC picks this weekend. You could pay the same –120 for betting that the judges won't decide the outcome, but why throw away those extra 2.5 minutes? Time is precious. You can buy another 2.5 minutes for 15 cents if you want; there's a prop at –140 for whether they'll make it to Round 5. We'll stick with the total here at the ranch, thank you kindly.
Free UFC Pick: OVER 4.5 rounds (–117)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle
Record: 7-0 ML, 1-1 Totals, 1-0 Props (+9.50 units)