USA Win & German Domination Shift Group G World Cup Odds

Nila Amerova

Tuesday, June 17, 2014 5:08 PM GMT

Germany dominate a 10-man Portugal while USA stuns Ghana. As a result, not only has the outlook in Group G shifted, but also Germany’s odds to win the title shorten. Find out what the value of these changes are as we head into the second round of Group betting.

Germany’s stock on the rise
For a second time in the finals, the Itaipava Arena Fonte Nova, in Salvador, Bahia, serves up a shockingly one-sided demolition, a 4-0 destruction of a 10-man Portugal (one of the teams to spot in Brazil according to pundits) by Germany that sends World Cup betting markets reeling, and odds makers scrambling to get their World Cup odds in line with the outcome. It’s safe to say, Group G isn’t going to plan, exactly.  

Germany began their World Cup campaign on the back of a dominating 4-0 performance over Portugal, proving once again their eminent quality and value as the third favourites in outright World Cup betting. Die Mannschaft, who were matched at tempting +110 soccer odds to win outright in match betting markets, were brutally efficient, focused and ruthless as they picked Portugal apart on the night; all the while, Thomas Muller picked up from whence he left off in South Africa, scoring a hat trick in yesterday’s demolition to move onto the shortlist for Golden Boot candidates and World Cup top scorer. Muller can also be backed at -180 in top team scorer markets at Bet365.

Germany now head into the second round as the firm favourites at -350 to win their penultimate clash with Ghana in Group G betting. Indeed, the African’s, now the whopping +6600 bet to win Group G and +700 bet to simply advance, will have all to do to upset the Germans. Ahead of the World Cup, Germany were fancied to go deep into the tournament. Following their bright start, they look very good to not only advance out of the knockouts, but also navigate a successful course into the semis, if not win the whole damn thing for the first time since 1990. As it were, odds makers have responded by slashing Germany’s odds from +650 to +450 since round one in Group G was put to bed.


Portugal’s nightmare
On the other side of the coin, it was a dreadful nightmare, the worse kind of start to a World Cup campaign possible, summed up so: two players succumbing to injury; another to suspension following unnecessary unsportsmanlike conduct; and going down a man and 4-0 to hit rock bottom in Group G.

Portugal, matched at +300 to win outright, wilted in the face of Germany’s pressure and stifling conditions. Any misgivings about the squad and Cristiano Ronaldo’s fitness proved real as the Portuguese are now sat pretty on the bottom of Group G, matched at +333 odds to remain at the bottom by the end of group betting.

Now Portugal, listed as the hot favourites at -138 to be eliminated in Group action – a decided shift from pre-World Cup betting markets in which they were fancied to advance at least to the R16 – need to overcome both Ghana and USA, if they are to turn the odds in their favour. They are still in play to advance at +100 in Group Betting markets. But who knows what will happen to Portugal’s campaign? If the embarrassing defeat to Germany were any indication, the prognosis isn’t good. It’s not just that they lost 4-0, but more the manner in which they lost. They completely lost the plot, from ineffective counterattacks to disorganised defending, and the stupid head butt heard around the world. It goes without saying, Portugal’s loss is USA’s gain, following the Americans’ 2-1 victory over Ghana.


USA’s DDAY
The Stars and Stripes pleasantly surprise World Cup betting markets on Day 5 by beating Ghana, in order to lift their stock value in Group G. USA’s odds have been slashed to +800 to win Group G and to an agreeable +100 to simply advance.

Although it was a tight World Cup betting line in their opener, USA still masterminded a mini-upset in order to turn the odds in their favour. Ghana, listed as the favourites at +163, failed to continue their good form against the Americans (matched at +200) after winning their last two encounters 2-1 at the finals.  Somewhat ironically, USA beat Ghana 2-1 at Arena das Dunas, in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, while Clint Dempsey scored one of the fastest goals in World Cup history, in less than a minute from kick-off.


World Cup Betting Verdict
What does all this mean for Group G and World Cup bettors looking for value World Cup Picks? Well, to begin with, Germany’s solid start just underscores their value as one of the favourites to win the whole thing at +450. World Cup bettors could do no worse than backing a classy side such as Germany in outright betting markets. As far as Germany’s Group account goes, it’s hard to see Germany not winning Group G.

For the rest of the contenders in Group G, the implications following the first round of matches are obvious: second spot is wide-open. USA are in pole position to advance, and they have to fancy their chances to clinch second spot with a severely weakened Portugal – mentally and physically (suspensions and injuries) – looming next. You can back USA with your soccer pick at +100 to simply advance, and both Germany and USA to advance (in that order) at +138 in Group Forecast markets. Odds makers still seem to favour the pairing of Germany and Portugal (in that order) at +120, despite listing Portugal exactly at +100 to simply advance as well.