US Presidential Odds: Hillary Gets Post DNC Bounce in the Polls

Swinging Johnson

Friday, July 29, 2016 7:41 PM UTC

Friday, Jul. 29, 2016 7:41 PM UTC

As expected, Hillary Clinton was the beneficiary of a post-convention bounce in the polls but whether that translates into a shift of the U.S. presidential odds is discussed below.

Hillary Reintroduces…Hillary
Hillary Clinton is fully aware that she has never quite gotten the hang of warm and fuzzy. Her public persona is her best attempt at softening her hard exterior, which should say something about her private demeanor. Her voice comes across as a shrill, hectoring tirade when she speaks publically; almost as if she’s been told her mic is malfunctioning. While that comes across as passionate to her admirers, it resonates as shrewish to her detractors. How the independent voters regard it will most likely determine the election.

In her acceptance speech to the throngs at the DNC and the millions watching at home, she was hoping to reinvent herself. Her platforms remained the same and the attacks on her opponent were business as usual. If she was trying to portray a more genteel persona then that went largely unnoticed by those who have watched her throughout the years. Perhaps her best moments came not when speaking of her own achievements in public service but reminding everyone that her opponent is not only a political neophyte but a dangerous one at that. In other words, in a pick-your-poison election, Hillary Clinton is the least fatal.


Tracking the Polls
Depending on which poll you believe Donald Trump had either drawn even with the U.S. presidential odds favorite Hillary Clinton or was up by as many as seven points before the Democratic National Convention. As the DNC moved into its second day a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll showed Trump’s lead was a mere two points ahead of the Democratic nominee. However, the most recent Rasmussen poll now shows Clinton up by one point over her bombastic rival and that is good news for those who either intend to support Clinton at the voting booth or are betting on her at their favorite offshore sportsbook.

Moving forward there will be a myriad of polls whose results will differ according to the criteria and the pollsters conducting them. But the major hurdle for both candidates is the low favorability ratings that have plagued each campaign. Despite Hillary’s attempts at becoming more relatable, she shares a 58 percent unfavorable rating with her nemesis, Donald Trump. Americans simply do not like either candidate and will be forced to hold their nose and vote…or not vote at all. Many of those comprising the Hillary haters are from her own party in the form of spurned Bernie Sanders voters.

The DNC was supposed to be a time to unite for the Democrats but the looming specter of young Bernie voters would not be assuaged by anything, including Sanders himself. The powder keg was the revelation, via WikiLeaks, that the DNC had worked steadfastly to get Clinton nominated instead of allowing the process to unfold according to the wishes of the voters. This explosive information came at a time when Clinton was trying to woo Sanders voters, which largely derailed her efforts. Whether she can ultimately convince them, that though she is not their ideal choice she is better than the GOP candidate, remains to be seen.


What Are the Odds?
According to the array of offshore sportsbooks featured at SBR’s U.S. Election Odds, not much has happened since the DNC wrapped up their convention. We must take into account that this writing is less than a day removed from Hillary’s appearance and those odds will change as the election draws closer.

If you are a Hillary supporter, the most favorable odds from the major sportsbooks come via where you can find Clinton at -205 to win the United States Presidential Election. If you believe Donald Trump will be our next Commander-in-Chief then you may want check the odds at GTBets that seems to be hanging an outdated line of Trump +275. If those lines stand up, it could be an ideal arbitrage opportunity for those bettors with a penchant for middles.

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