US Politics Update: Presidential Betting Picks & Odds

Swinging Johnson

Tuesday, May 24, 2016 12:00 PM UTC

Tuesday, May. 24, 2016 12:00 PM UTC

Trump has vanquished all GOP contenders while Clinton still feels the Bern from her Democrat counterpart from Vermont. Let’s review the presidential odds and see where we stand.

Donald Trumps Them All
The last two GOP contenders fell by the wayside a few weeks ago when Ted Cruz and John Kasich suspended their campaigns, which paved the way for the nomination of one-time presidential longshot Donald Trump to lead the Republicans back to the White House. It was an improbable candidacy from an unlikely candidate but the no retreat, no surrender and no apologies attitude from the billionaire New York tough guy blazed his path through the traditional conservative stuffed shirts and straight into the American political consciousness.

The fight is over unless an illness, tragedy or sudden change of heart befalls The Donald. However, there are still offshore books like dealing lines on the Republican nomination. If you want to bet Trump then you should have enough money to buy a yacht in order to earn a return that will barely allow you to purchase a dinghy. Nevertheless, the Republican nomination betting odds are as follows:
Donald Trump -10,000
Paul Ryan +4000
Mitt Romney +8000


Hillary Can’t Avoid The Bern
While the Hillary supporters, and many of the political pundits, will declare that Hillary has this thing sewn up, it should be understood that the fat lady has not yet sung. It should also be noted that the super-delegates, who are seemingly steadfast in Clinton’s camp, will remain so only if she continues to win the majority of states yet to vote. But if Sanders can run the table and his momentum prohibits Hillary from getting the necessary delegates, then the Democratic convention could be more of a circus than a coronation.

It’s a longshot for Bernie to be sure but he has been catnip to the young demographic of Democrat voters who look to him as a crazy old great-uncle who wants to legalize pot for recreational use and give free tuition to anyone who wants it. Old Bernie has magically bridged the generation gap with those platforms and as attractive he is to the 20-somethings, he is equally addicted to the adulation that they bestow upon him.

This campaign has been a narcotic to Sanders and he won’t give up the addiction until he is shutoff from his suppliers, aka the voters and the super-delegates. Below are the presidential betting odds for the Democrat nomination.
Hillary Clinton -4000
Bernie Sanders +1600
Joe Biden +2500


The General Election
It is almost a foregone conclusion that the two most disliked presidential candidates in American history will square off in a pick-your-poison election this fall. Of course each side has its rabid supporters but the winner will be the one who can attract independents and the disenfranchised Bernie supporters. While the logical conclusion would be that Bernie voters will automatically matriculate as Hillary voters, I say not so fast.

The fact that Bernie’s young voting bloc just happens to be Democrat does not mean they will flock to the Hillary camp. Young Bernie voters distrust Hillary and will undoubtedly be viewing her as the reason their hopes and dreams were crushed under her political machine. Does that mean they vote for Trump? Not necessarily, because they could do what they did in the last election - not vote at all.

Donald Trump has the Libertarian Party slightly vexing his presidential aspirations. They are the moderate Republicans who have far softer social leanings but the same conservative fiscal values. It doesn’t help that the ticket has as its vice-presidential nominee the former governor of Massachusetts, Bill Weld. Weld is a slightly less abrasive and much more articulate version of Trump and is not afraid to tell voters where the dog died. If the Libertarians cull enough voters from Republicans reluctant to support Trump then it could tip the election in Clinton’s favor.

Without further ado, here are the prevailing betting odds for the general election:
Hillary Clinton -220
Donald Trump +200
Bernie Sanders +2000
Joe Biden +3300
Paul Ryan +10,000
Mitt Romney +20,000

comment here