US Open Tennis Odds: Main Favorites Spread Analysis

João Mourato

Saturday, August 29, 2015 6:16 PM GMT

Saturday, Aug. 29, 2015 6:16 PM GMT

Join us while we analyze the spread of some main favorites that will get on court this Monday. Can they cover their spread or will the underdog put a good fight?

Will Djokovic Have Another Easy on a Grand Slam?
Novak Djokovic will be looking for another easy start on a Grand Slam, the last time that he lost a set in the first round was in this same US Open 2010 against Viktor Troicki. Djokovic will face the World No. 89 Joao Souza. The Brazilian prefers to play on clay where his kick serve is more effective and has more time also to hit his forehand. This is just the second time that Souza will play the main draw of US Open and he has a 0 – 6 career record in main draws of Grand Slams. The Serbian shouldn’t have any problems at all on this match, he’s much superior from the baseline and there isn’t much Souza can do, however the Brazilian has a pretty decent serve and Djokovic has been far from impressive lately.

The handicap is -12.0 for Djokovic at +106 and our advice is not to take this bet because Souza can always get couple of matches per set with his aggressive serve and forehand while Djokovic has been below his best and might struggle to keep a high consistence level.

After missing Cincinnati with a hip injury, Kei Nishikori will have a tough task defending finalist points from last year. Nishikori will start his campaign against the talented but very inconsistent Benoit Paire. Paire has a great backhand and won recently his first career title on clay in Bastad, but he has big problems to keep a consistent level and has periods in the match where he just seems to give up. Nishikori won the two previous meetings between them (the last one was in 2013 at French Open 6 – 3 6 – 7 6 – 4 6 – 1).

The handicap is currently at -8.0 at +112 tennis odds for Nishikori and the Japanese has very good conditions to cover this spread. Paire will have many problems to keep a consistent level and there should be at least one set where Kei will win by a big margin (like it happened in their previous meeting) that should be a big help to his handicap. Even if Paire wins a close set, Nishikori should get the others with some decent margin to cover this spread.

David Ferrer has also struggled with an elbow injury in last months. David had a very good draw for him to make his return facing some lower level players that are more used to play on Challenger Tour. His first opponent is Radu Albot, the player from Moldavia is going to play his second career match on a Grand Slam main draw after losing to Gilles Simon last season in this same tournament. Albot tries to be aggressive and solid from the baseline, but there is nothing on his game that can make a real damage on Ferrer, this should be battle between two consistent baseline players where one is just at a higher level.

Ferrer’s handicap is -8.0 at +108 and this is a very interesting line for David, he’s always a very competitive player who keep a high intensity and Albot should have many problems. Radu might give a good fight in one set and a half, but after that should be all about Ferrer taking at least one set by a big margin to cover this handicap.

 

Serena's Golden Slam Quest
Serena Williams will start her quest for the Golden Slam against the Vitalia Diatchenko. Serena has started very impressive last years in US Open, since 2010 she has only allowed an average of 2.25 games from her opponents. Diatchenko tries to be a very aggressive player, but struggles to keep a consistent level. Vitalia faced this year a top player in a Grand Slam at French Open losing to Sharapova 3 – 6 1 – 6. She’s a player who manages to give a good fight in the first games of the match, however her game starts to crumble and the most visible example of that was in Stanford where she lost to Tomljanovic 6 – 3 0 – 6 0 – 6.

The handicap for this match is -8.0 at -109, despite considering that she might cover the handicap our advice is that a live bet might be more interesting on this case. Serena sometimes starts the matches slower while Diatchenko is a player who usually plays her best in first set and just collapses in second set. This should be another of those cases where Serena allows around 3 games in first set and wins the second with a bagel or allowing only one game, so the move we suggest is to wait for the end of first set and bet on Serena’s handicap if she had a closer first set which might indicate an easier second one.

 

Free Tennis Picks, All Prices from Pinnacle Sports
In our analysis on the main favorites for August 31 we advise to take before the match the handicaps on Kei Nishikori -8.0 at +112 and David Ferrer -8.0 at +108 for your tennis picks.

Serena Williams -8.0 handicap at -109 doesn’t seem to have much value before the event, so our suggestion is to wait for the end of first set where the value opportunities might be higher.

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