Matteo Berrettini (24) vs Rafael Nadal (2)
Three-time US Open champion Rafael Nadal advanced to the semifinals at Flushing Meadows after a 6-4, 7-5, 6-2 victory against Diego Schwartzman on Wednesday. Nadal played a very solid match but needed medical attention at the end of the second set. The No.2 seed appeared to be cramping in the humid conditions and called the trainer to treat his left forearm. Nadal still managed to get the job done in straight sets and move one step closer to a 19th Grand Slam title.
Next for Nadal will be Matteo Berrettini, who needed a fifth set tie break to take down Gael Monfils and reach his first Grand Slam semifinal. Berrettini struggled to close the match, double faulting when serving at 5-3 in the decisive set. Nevertheless, the 23-year-old proved too strong for Monfils in the fifth set tie break to become the first Italian man in 42 years to reach the last four in New York.
The sportsbooks are expecting a straightforward win from Nadal with the Spaniard as the heavy favorite at -1800 with Bovada. Nevertheless, Berrettini is a very dangerous player on these fast conditions. The Italian has one of the most powerful serves in the game and should create some problems to Nadal, which makes his spread the best line to add to our parlay on this match.
Daniil Medvedev (5) vs Grigor Dimitrov
Former world No.3 Grigor Dimitrov produced one of his best ever performances to beat 20-time Grand Slam champion Roger Federer for the first time in eight attempts. Federer struggled with physical problems in the final set and needed treatment on his upper back and neck. On the other hand, Dimitrov played a very intelligent game, always looking to extend the rallies in order to exploit Federer’s physical limitations.
Looking now a Grigor’s draw on this event, the Bulgarian will next take on Daniil Medvedev for a place in the US Open final. Medvedev has enjoyed tremendous success in recent weeks, winning 90.48% of the matches on the US Open series in 2019. The No.5 seed overcame soreness on his leg and fatigue to take down Stan Wawrinka 7-6(6), 6-3, 3-6, 6-1 in the quarterfinals at Flushing Meadows.
These two players will face each other for the third time in their careers. Dimitrov won their first official encounter at the Queens Club in 2017 while Medvedev got his revenge a few weeks later in Washington.
Daniil had two full days to rest, which should be enough for him to recover for this match. The Russian can’t stop winning and it’s hard to go against him at the moment. On the other hand, Dimitrov is not the strongest player under pressure and only won one of his last seven encounters against Top 10 players. Having said that, we’ll add Medvedev’s moneyline to our parlay as the best betting approach for this contest.
Best Parlay: Total Odds (+134) with Pinnacle
- Berrettini +9 (-200)
- Medvedev to win (-179)