US Open Day 7 Tennis Picks: Spread Analysis for Main Favorites

João Mourato

Saturday, September 5, 2015 5:54 PM GMT

US Open 4th round gets underway this Sunday and we have analyzed the spread of three main favorites that will try to book a place in the quarterfinals.

Novak Djokovic vs. Roberto Bautista Agut
Novak Djokovic had some more problems against Andreas Seppi defeating the Italian 6 – 3 7 – 5 7 – 5 in a match where he had some problems against Andreas high pace from the baseline and allowed the Italian to break him twice after not facing a single break point in first two matches.

Roberto Bautista Agut was down 1 – 2 in sets when David Goffin retired due to illness. Roberto is a very competitive player, extremely solid from the baseline and has great counter puncher skills. Agut is far from a talented player, his quality is his high intensity but against top 10 players that is far from enough with a 3 – 19 record against top 10 players (defeated two times Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro).

Djokovic won easily the two matches they played in 2013 and 2014, however Agut has improved since then and this shouldn’t be that easy for Novak. The Spanish will keep a very high intensity during all match not allowing free points to the Serbian. The spread line is too high for Djokovic -9.0 at -101 and against such a competitive player after what we saw against Seppi can’t trust on Novak to cover the handicap with our tennis picks.

 

Serena Williams vs. Madinson Keys
Serena Williams struggled once again, after being  close from losing first set against Kiki Bertens this time she was a set down with Bethanie Mattek-Sands and was only able to take the second 7 – 5 cruising then to a very easy 6 – 0 win on third set where she clearly raise the level of her game.

Madison Keys managed to end her losing streak against Agnieszka Radwanska to defeat the Polish 6 – 3 6 – 2. It was all about Madison firepower with 30 winners and 23 unforced errors while Radwanska only made 5 winners and 9 unforced errors. What is even more impressive is that Radwanska lost all 13 points she played with second serve.

This should be a very interesting match between two Americans with huge firepower, they have met already this season in Australian Open where Serena won 7 – 6 6 – 2 with a very good resistance from Keys on first set. After two tough matches Serena Williams is aware that she can’t give any margin to such a dangerous player as Madison and the World No. 1 should be able to raise her level covering her spread line.

Tennis Pick: Serena Williams -5.0 at -124 at BetOnline

 

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Benoit Paire
Benoit Paire keeps his great run with a solid win over Tommy Robredo 7 – 6 6 – 1 6 – 1, he’s an extremely talented player with a great backhand and ended the match against Tommy with 52 winners and 37 unforced errors. After a huge first match against Kei Nishikori where he got 21 aces and 64% first serve in, his numbers on serve have been decreasing with 50% and 47% first serve in against Marsel Ilhan and Tommy Robredo, respectively.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was only able once to get further than 4th round in 2011 when he reached QF but has a very good opportunity here to repeat that. Tsonga got three solid wins so far in straight sets against Jarkko Nieminen, Marcel Granollers and Sergiy Stahkovsky not being broken a single time so far during the tournament.

The matchup is pretty curious on this match because Tsonga will be looking to hit crossed forehand to explore Paire weaker forehand while Benoit will try to take advantage of his crossed backhand to attack Tsonga’s backhand. Paire has tennis to be very competitive with Tsonga, the last match they played was in Shanghai 2012 where Tsonga won 7 – 6 7 – 5, however he has to raise his first serve % to avoid Jo’s strong return to his second serves. The spread -5.5 at +104 tennis odds is a very risky line because this match should have at least one tiebreak and the match-up here isn’t the best for Tsonga. Tsonga likes to play very often the inside out forehand and that will go for Benoit’s favorite shot that can make a lot of damage with the backhand down the line so we’ll skip this line.