US Open Day 5 Tennis Picks: Spread Analysis for Main Favorites

João Mourato

Thursday, September 3, 2015 6:04 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 3, 2015 6:04 PM UTC

The 3rd round gets underway this Friday and we'll be looking at the main favorites' spread with the two World No. 1 players in action.

Andreas Seppi vs. Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic kept his impressive start of the US Open defeating Andreas Haider-Maurer 6 – 4 6 – 1 6 – 2, the Serbian didn’t face a single break point, made 27 winners, 19 unforced errors and only allowed 7 winners to the Austrian with a great baseline movement and defensive game.

Andreas Seppi reached third round of US Open for the third time on his career and will try to get further for the first time. The Italian had a tough 2nd round against Teymuraz Gabashvili, he was 2 – 5 down on third set but took advantage of Gabashvili’s inconsistence to turn that match. Andreas is a good baseline player with many years of tennis, however there isn’t much he can do with his game against Djokovic.

The h2h is overwhelming with Novak leading 11 – 0 and on Hard Court Outdoor the Italian was never able to win a single set against the Serbian. Their last meeting was in Dubai 2013 where Djokovic just crushed Seppi 6 – 0 6 – 3.

Djokovic is very focused he says the key for his matches is to start with a strong intensity and keep a high level, he did that with Haider-Maurer but the Austrian was serving at a huge level on first set but Seppi doesn’t have such a big serve and Nole should take this with comfortable margins covering the spread.

Tennis Pick: Novak Djokovic -9.5 at +108 at BetOnline


Fabio Fognini vs. Rafael Nadal
After a pretty decent first round against Borna Coric, Rafael Nadal level was lower in his second match against Diego Schwartzman. He managed to win it in straight sets but was in big part due to Diego’s inability to keep leads, the Argentinean had a 5 – 3 lead in first set tie break and also had break up in second and third set.

Fabio Fognini is a huge talent, but also very unstable mentally and that’s the main reason why he can’t do better because he has a lot of tennis. This week he has done well defeating Steve Johnson and Pablo Cuevas but is always hard to predict how Fabio will perform.

Fognini already managed to defeat twice this year Nadal on clay and clearly has the game to bother Rafa, the main issue is what will be Fabio’s mindset for the match. If he’s up for the task he can even pull a major upset, on the other hand if he shows up with his “joker” mindset he should be crushed. Due to the high unpredictability of this match we’ll skip the spread on Nadal -6.0 at +100.


Serena Williams vs. Bethanie Mattek-Sands
Serena Williams clearly struggled against Kiki Bertens ending that match with 23 winners, 34 unforced errors, 7 aces and 10 double faults. The American was down a break in first set and also 0 – 4 on first set tie break but showed all her determination and champion mentality to turn the match even without playing well.

Bethanie Mattek-Sands is always a very dangerous player, she has done very well on Grand Slams this year and is doing the same this week defeating so far Kayeryna Kozlova and Coco Vandeweghe. Bethanie is a great double player and brings the aggressive tennis from the doubles with a strong return, good serve and always looking for a possibility to come to the net.

This won’t be an easy match for Serena, Mattek-Sands has a very good mindset to play against top players and will just go on court to play her game and enjoy the moment. The pressure is all on Serena and after seeing her struggling emotionally against Bertens I can’t trust her to cover the -7.0 at -114 tennis odds spread against such a dangerous player.

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