While everyone eyes on the US Presidential election candidates, bettors are betting heavily on the Democratic party. Should we bet on Clinton?
Taking advantage of the pause in the delegation battle, it’s time to have a look at the betting markets and the trends developing therein. Everyone can see that Clinton and Trump are favorites in the candidacy race and that Clinton is the favorite for Next US President. But, gamblers have been betting relentlessly for months now in political markets and odds haven’t stay put at all. These evolving trends might hide future odds movements, and subsequently future upsets. Or not.
Let’s start with the nomination markets before moving to the main betting market.
Throughout the article we’ll be showing charts of implied probability instead of odds. They offer better ground for analysis due to odds volatility and range. Don’t worry, they are still based on betting activity. You just have to remember that a decline corresponds to drifting betting odds and an ascend to odds shortening.
Clinton’s chance is going up for years. Since the beginning of the 2016 Presidential election debate, her odds have been going nowhere but south. Nowadays she’s 90% favorite to win the nomination according to bettors. As long as the trend line is valid, I have no reason to doubt them.
Sanders’ chart on the other hand doesn’t look that promising. Despite the ups and downs, his chance to win the nomination battle has been ranging between 5% and 20%. Under these conditions, I’d back him when his odds drift to +1900 (20.0 decimal odds) and bet against him when odds shorten to +400 (5.00 decimal odds). Then I’d be looking to take the opposite bet (in effect, trading out) when the odds moved towards the range’s other end.
Just make sure you exit the market if there’s a breakout and re-enter on the breakout’s direction.
Things get very interesting in the Republican’s nomination race. I had noted in my previous posts of the support level at 50% that used to be a resistance as Trump’s chance climbed. The support offered an excellent entry point a month or so ago, when odds momentarily touched +100 and resumed shortening.
However, that decline ended before odds reached their lowest point, that corresponds to this chart’s high at 80%. This failed top as it’s known of, is an indicator of the trend’s termination. Since then, Trump’s chances to win the nomination worsened and have broken that support level, hitting 40%. With two indications now signaling an unfavorable outcome for Trump, there’s only a trendline to warrant any bets on Trump. Should that give way, I’d bet against Trump. Yet, for the time being, backing Trump justifies the risk, given we might catch an uptrend to 80%, as long as we are disciplined to take a hit, if the trend line fails.
Cruz’s chart is, in fact, a ‘Sanders chart’ with a breakout! After a long period of ranging between 5 and 25%, his chances have improved to 35%, after the resistance’s failure. The rational option is to bet on Cruz at this point and ride the newly-born and possibly long-term ascending trend.
For patient bettors, waiting for a pullback to 25% (+300) would be an ideal entry point.
And finally, in the popular market for the Next US President, Clinton’s odds resumed shortening after a prolonged inactivity period. Clinton is currently a 70% favorite to win the presidency.
Suppose you didn’t back her at 60% (-150), I’d avoid betting on Clinton at the shortest odds. I’d wait for another breakout in the implied probability’s chart and then for a pullback to 70%, before risking money on the Democratic nominee. Or in case, odds drift up to -150 again.
I’d definitely stay away from a bet on Trump, as well, but I wouldn’t object a betting pick on Cruz at this point. The breakout that we talked of in the nomination’s market, is apparent in this market as well.
Closing up, I suppose the most interesting chart refers to the winning party. Just look at Democrats’ odds decline at William Hill!