Uruguay vs. Paraguay Copa America Picks: What to Expect When Familiar Foes Collide?

Nikki Adams

Thursday, June 18, 2015 5:20 PM UTC

Thursday, Jun. 18, 2015 5:20 PM UTC

Before us on the Copa America 2015 odds board is the thrilling showdown between Uruguay and Paraguay, two of South America's most renowned sides. Find out where we're putting down money on our soccer picks.

Soccer Betting Outlook Stands In Contrast To Group Standings
Paraguay and Argentina lead Group B with four points apiece while Uruguay trails just a point behind in the group standings. Jamaica, the group's unfortunate punching bag, props up the table pointless. Based on the standings, Paraguay are in an enviable position to advance into the knockouts on the Copa America Odds Board however it's the Uruguayans that are fancied to win outright. They enter round 3 of Group B play as the favorites, albeit a smidgen above EVEN money at +105. Paraguay, by contrast, are trading at a whopping +275 soccer odds while the draw is offered up at +225 soccer odds. Do the odds makers have the right take on this match or are the just being biased towards Uruguay at the expense of a dangerous floater?

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Uruguay Favored
Uruguay and Paraguay's rivalry goes back decades with a combined 29 titles in this competition. These sides typically deliver fierce contests and thrilling showdowns. What's more, they've been evenly matched in recent meetings, twice settling on a 1-1 draw in WC qualification (2011 and 2013). It's true that Uruguay have the better head-to-head though with four wins, two draws and a loss in their last seven meetings, which partly explains their favoritism going into this game. That and they have slightly better form ahead of Copa America with a 5-1-1 mark in seven friendlies. Paraguay mustered up a 1-2-4 run in friendlies in the lead up to Copa America. Still, they've saved their best for this competition as they are undefeated after two rounds with a win over Jamaica and a hard fought 2-2 draw with Argentina in their group opener.


Paraguay Disadvantaged
If there were a measure of Paraguay, it would be the 2-2 draw with Argentina in this competition. Paraguay went down 2-0 to a Lionel Messi-inspired Argentina in the first half, but they deserve a lot of credit for rallying back and levelling the score behind a 60th minute strike and a last-gasp 90th minute equaliser. Argentina took their foot off the pedal and came to a stuttering stop in the second half. Opportunistically, Paraguay capitalised.


Soccer Betting Verdict
Given the history, familiarity and quality of both these two teams the soccer betting line that odds makers have rolled out is a bit disingenuous. Uruguay are fancied way too much over a Paraguay side that can surprise. The popular soccer pick does appear to be Uruguay to win outright amongst soccer bettors, with a good chunk leaning towards a narrow 2-1 win, which can be backed at +800 soccer odds at Bet365.

Still La Celeste's bid hangs in the balance of this match. The 1-0 defeat to Argentina was costly and they didn't exactly show their quality in a 1-0 win over Jamaica either. Given the recent trends between these two sides as well (back-to-back draws) a Uruguay win is even less of a lock on your soccer picks. Hence, we're going to hedge our bets with a Paraguay win or draw at -125. If you're feeling bold, go for the outright upset with Paraguay at +275 soccer odds. Those odds are just begging a tickle.

Soccer Picks: Paraguay to win or draw at -125 or Paraguay win at +275

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