Understanding How Stats Can Affect Your Tennis Picks

João Mourato

Friday, December 4, 2015 7:48 PM GMT

Friday, Dec. 4, 2015 7:48 PM GMT

We'll keep our articles with another crucial factor for a proper analysis. This time we'll explore the stats importance and also the best way to analyze them in order to increase your betting value.

On our previous article, we explored the importance of motivation on tennis. This time we’ll focus on another key factor when analyzing a tennis match: Stats

 

There are numerous stats available when analyzing a tennis match and they can definitely be a decision-making helper. First of all, it’s important to know the players, understand their strengths and weaknesses in order to give special attention to the stats that better suit each player.

We can separate stats into 3 main groups:

Serve – Average Aces; Average Double Faults; 1st Serve %; 1st Serve W%; 2nd Serve W%; Service Hold %

Return – Average Opponent Aces; Average Opponent Double Faults; 1st Return W%; 2nd Return W%; Return Games W%

Pressure Points – Break Points Saved%; Break Points Converted%

 

As we mentioned, knowing each player gives us an advantage when looking at the numbers and we’ll give a couple of examples:

 

Ivo Karlovic is perhaps the biggest server on tour. The 6’11’’ (211cm) Croatian broke the career aces record this season with 1447 aces in 2015. On the other hand, Ivo is one of the worst returners on tour with a terrible baseline movement.

When analyzing Karlovic stats, his return numbers are far from relevant due to his game style and strategy. The Croatian game plan is to hold his serve and wait for an opportunity on his opponent serve, but the only way for him to win matches is by serving at great level.

With this is mind, we can conclude that Serve and Pressure Points are the two most important stats to keep in mind when analyzing Karlovic. If we look at his numbers in 2015 when compared to the previous two seasons we can see a clear difference on those two categories

 

 

Avg Aces

Avg DF

1st Serve %

1st Serve W%

2nd Serve W%

Serv Hold %

BP Saved %

BP Conv %

2013 & 2014

1,44

0,24

65,35

83,4

53,9

92,15

69,6

30,6

2015

1,58

0,25

66,6

84,6

57

95,6

79,1

33,4

 

As we can see, his numbers were much better on serve in 2015. The other key was his performance on pressure points, which is a great indicator of a player’s confidence.

 

For the first time since 2004, Rafael Nadal ended the year without conquering a single Grand Slam title. Nadal is known for his brilliant top spin forehand and tremendous consistency, but the Spaniard’s biggest weapon is, without a doubt, mental strength.

Rafael has struggled with several physical problems in recent years, in 2014 lost Australian Open final due to a back injury, withdrew from US Open due to a wrist injury and ended the year with an appendix surgery. All this problems affected not only Nadal’s body, but also his confidence.

At the end of 2015, Rafael said that his biggest problem was the lack of confidence and we can see that his Pressure Points numbers were much below, when compared to his 2008 – 2014 stats.

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

BP Saved %

68,3

64,9

69,3

63,7

70,5

68,9

66,7

62,1

BP Converted %

45

47,1

43,7

45,9

49,2

46,2

49,5

42,8

 

In 2015 Nadal’s numbers were the worst ever, not only on BP Saved % but also on BP Converted %. We can also see that 2011 was his second worst year and that was also the season where Rafael won less titles (3 trophies as in 2015).

It seems quite clear that when analyzing Nadal’s stats, his pressure points numbers are a great indicator of his current shape.

 

With this two examples we can conclude that stats are a great indicator of a player’s momentum and confidence. However, it is extremely important to know each player, in order to ensure that we’re looking at the right numbers and doing an accurate betting odds analysis. If we don’t do this, we might be missing the key stats and our betting picks lose value.

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