Underestimating Shogun Could Be a Mistake in Bout vs. Sub Smith

Wednesday, July 18, 2018 1:51 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jul. 18, 2018 1:51 PM UTC

Changes to the main and co-main event of UFC Fight Night 134 have had significant impact on Sunday's card, but they also present the betting community with some interesting lines that could yield value. 

<h2 style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/boxing-mma-ufc-betting/" title="UFC Betting Forum">UFC Fight Night 134</a></h2><h2 style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/ufc/anthony-smith-vs-mauricio-rua-3516739/" title="Complete Smith-Rua Odds">Anthony Smith vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua</a></h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Free UFC Pick: Rua +190</h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Best Line Offered: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4573&amp;book=Pinnacle" rel="nofollow" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">Pinnacle</a></h2><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3516739, "sportsbooksIds":[238,139,999996,19,169], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>The main event for Sunday's card in Hamburg, Germany, was originally set to feature top light heavyweight contender Volkan Oezdemir squaring off with living legend Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. However, Oezdemir was yanked from the card and will face Alexander Gustafsson at UFC 227. In his place will be rising talent Anthony Smith, who sent Rashad Evans into retirement last month.</p><p>The change has put Rua as an underdog (+185) while <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/ufc/" title="UFC Odds">Smith stands as a significant favorite (-225)</a> heading into battle. For what it’s worth, Smith has gone 4-1 in his last five fights with none making it to the judges’ scorecards. Aside from Evans, Smith has scored knockouts against Hector Lombard, Andrew Sanchez and Elvis Mutapcic. His loss was to Thiago Santos earlier this year. Rua has won three in a row, against Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Corey Anderson and Gian Villante.</p><p>On the surface, you have to wonder why Rua is such a big underdog. Part of the problem is that he is 36 with a lot of mileage on his body. The other part is that he hasn’t fought in more than a year. Smith appears to be putting it all together but I’m not fond of him being this much of a favorite against a man who has taken nothing but tough fights since coming to the UFC more than a decade ago.</p><p>One thing we’ve learned about Rua is that you can never count him out. Even though he’s not the guy who destroyed all comers in PRIDE, he’s still extraordinarily dangerous for an opponent who still has holes in his game. Smith fits that profile. <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/more-sports/" title="Free Sports Picks">There’s a lot to like about Rua here</a> and that’s the value pick.</p><p>[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/klp4IUsFLoA", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]</p><p> </p><h2 style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/ufc/corey-anderson-vs-glover-teixeira-3516740/" title="Complete Anderson-Teixeira Odds">Corey Anderson vs. Glover Teixeira</a></h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Free UFC Pick: Teixeira (-155)</h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Best Line Offered: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4573&amp;book=Pinnacle" rel="nofollow" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">Pinnacle</a></h2><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3516740, "sportsbooksIds":[238,139,999996,19,169], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>The co-main was originally set to be Glover Teixeira taking on Iilr Latifi. But an injury to Latifi has opened the door for Corey Anderson to take the fight on two weeks notice. <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/ufc/" title="UFC Odds">Teixeira sits as a -175 favorite but has been bet down</a> after starting off as high as -190. Anderson is started off as a +165 but is seeing his value drop to as low as +135.</p><p>This one is puzzling because Teixeira has lost to only top contenders or champions. If you don’t fit either profile, you’re not getting past Teixeira. His heavy hands and exceptional ground game are a recipe for disaster for Anderson, who got back in the win column after suffering back-to-back knockout losses to Ovince Saint Preux and Jimi Manuwa. Teixeira is better than both.</p><p>There are few scenarios that I see Anderson coming out victorious and <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/more-sports/" title="Free Sports Picks">this is a line that you should certainly jump on</a>. Who knows how much more it will come down, but the hard-hitting Brazilian is an easy pick.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;With a win at 🇩🇪 &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/UFCHamburg?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#UFCHamburg&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/gloverteixeira?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@GloverTeixeira&lt;/a&gt; should fight ________ next? &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/jn2ZOCPkk8\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/jn2ZOCPkk8&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— UFC (@ufc) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/ufc/status/1019279147170840577?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;July 17, 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p>
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